Mainz’s stellar start to the Bundesliga season has come despite long-standing issues at home, which could be set to continue if their H2H record against Werder Bremen is anything to go by.
Match News and Current Form
Only twice in Bundesliga history have Mainz posted more points after six games than their current ten-point haul, with last week’s 1-0 win over Schalke propelling them into the top five. That’s an impressive feat for a side who only picked up 12 points in the entire first half of last season, and has come largely thanks to defensive solidity with only Dortmund (4) keeping more clean sheets than the 05ers (3). A realistic European qualification push will depend on improvements at home as no side are on a longer winless run on their own turf in the Bundesliga (D1, L5), while Mainz are the first side in competition history to fail to win any of their first three home games in five consecutive seasons.
Werder Bremen sit just a point further back than Mainz having gone unbeaten since the opening day (W2, D3), though they’ve had to make history to preserve that run. The River Islanders are the first team to ever recover from two goals down to avoid defeat in three successive Bundesliga games (W1, D2), most recently rescuing a point at home against Paderborn (D 2-2). Their defensive frailties are there for all to see, with only one side in the division currently on a longer run without a clean sheet than Werder (13), and a six-game winless away league run (D3, L3) hardly hints at solidity arriving here.
Head-to-Head History
Mainz’s victory in the last H2H was their only win across the last seven in all competitions (D2, L4), while against no side they’ve hosted at least twice in the Bundesliga do Mainz possess a lower points-per-game average than Bremen (0.84), winning just four of the 19 such matches (D4, L11).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Mainz and Werder have scored a pre-round league-high six goals beyond the 75th minute this season.
Four of Mainz’s last five home games produced over 3.5 goals and saw both teams score.
No side has trailed more Bundesliga games at half-time than Werder (4) ahead of this round.
Werder have scored a pre-round joint league-high six set-piece goals this term, level with Mainz.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Phillip Tietz has equalled a Mainz record by scoring five times in their opening six games of this Bundesliga season, yet just one of his nine strikes in the league came on home turf. Niclas Füllkrug starts the round as the division’s joint-top scorer (G6) having netted in five straight matches, with only the great Rudi Völler (7) having netted more for Werder Bremen after the opening six games of a Bundesliga campaign.
Neither side look to have any fresh injuries.
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Betting Analysis
Priced as sizable outsiders, Bremen to win looks tempting given their H2H returns and Mainz’s home struggles.
Author: Ryan Fisher