After both were beaten by slender one-goal margins in their opening UEFA Nations League (UNL) fixture, Denmark and Wales are looking to get off the mark when they collide in Copenhagen.
Match News and Current Form
Denmark were beaten 3-2 by an Erling Haaland-inspired Norway on Thursday, though heart can be taken from levelling the contest having been 2-0 down early on. The Red and Whites missed out on the World Cup in the summer and have now won just once in four matches (D1, L2), and things are far from well in their camp with captain Pierre-Emile Højbjerg confessing after the Norway defeat that their midfield system “isn’t working”. How coach Brian Riemer chooses to respond to such a gauntlet from one of his most senior players remains to be seen, but a reaction on home soil appears likely as Denmark are unbeaten on their own turf since November 2024 (W6, D2).
Wales put in a spirited display to only lose 1-0 to a deflected goal against UNL holders Portugal on matchday one, and though their performance left manager Craig Bellamy “extremely proud”, his side are now winless in five games (D2, L3) since thrashing North Macedonia 7-1 in November. That’s not the only alarming trend working against the injury-ravaged Dragons, as Thursday’s reverse was a sixth defeat from seven matches at the top tier of the UNL (D1), while they’ve also not won an away game against a side currently ranked inside FIFA’s top 50 since March 2013!
Head-to-Head History
Denmark have won the last three H2Hs by a combined 8-1 scoreline, the first two of which came in the maiden UNL cycle in 2018. Wales were thrashed 4-0 at Euro 2020 by the Danes in the most recent meeting, but both of their last two H2H wins came on opposition soil.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Six of Denmark’s last seven home games produced over 2.5 goals.
Denmark have conceded 3+ goals in four of their five defeats under Riemer.
Six of Wales’ last eight competitive away games produced over 9.5 corners.
Wales have scored before half-time in just one of their last seven matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
All three of Rasmus Højlund’s goals for Napoli (2) or Denmark (1) so far this season have come in defeats, while his last five international scoring appearances featured over 2.5 goals. Sorba Thomas was involved in six goals in World Cup qualifying for Wales (G1, A5) and has seen three of his last four strikes for club or country come after half-time.
Denmark appear to have come through their latest game unscathed, though Ben Cabango was forced off early for Wales.
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Betting Analysis
Wales’ lack of threat without Harry Wilson was evident against Portugal, so Denmark to overcome a -1 handicap to win certainly holds some appeal here.
Author: Ryan Fisher