Lorenzo Musetti is extremely tired and low on energy after playing a heavy schedule of intense tennis in recent months. Despite this fatigue, he has no choice but to keep going, as he has never been this close to qualifying for the ATP Finals. He will do whatever it takes to hold onto the final qualifying spot for Turin that he currently occupies.
The start of the European indoor swing was disastrous for the Italian No. 2. He ran into the dangerous Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard early in Brussels, preventing him from strengthening his position in the race to Turin. To make matters worse, his closest rivals for a spot, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud, both won titles last week in Brussels and Stockholm, respectively, shrinking his buffer and adding significant pressure.
Every match at this stage is crucial for Musetti, and his success in Vienna last year is likely to give him a confidence boost. After back-to-back first-round exits in 2021 and 2023, he finally opened his account in 2024, reaching the semifinals with a notable victory over former champion Alexander Zverev.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is normally the player who would be in Lorenzo Musetti’s position, fighting for an ATP Finals spot. However, the situation has changed dramatically. He narrowly missed qualifying in 2023, and things are even worse now, as he has dropped out of the top 20 in the ATP rankings and sits at No. 29 in the race to Turin.
For many years, the Greek was known for his consistency, regularly ranking among the top players for most wins in a season. In 2025, however, he has managed just 23 wins in 44 matches, a significant drop. His chances of regaining form and returning to his previous peak are gradually fading, as he continues to struggle with prolonged poor form and a series of disappointing losses. He has not won back-to-back matches since the ATP Barcelona event in April.
Unlike in previous years, Tsitsipas does not have much at stake now, but a strong result in the final stretch of the season and a positive finish could set him up well for 2026, a crucial year for his attempt at a comeback. He enters this clash with a perfect 4–0 record in opening-round matches in Vienna, and his best result here was a semifinal appearance in 2023, his most recent visit to the tournament.
Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas leads 5–2. Tsitsipas has often been favored in matches but struggled to live up to expectations. Now, he has shifted into a position where he can be backed to deliver wins as the underdog, particularly in this clash against Lorenzo Musetti, who will be under pressure to produce victories, a task made even more challenging by his current low physical energy after a relentless schedule.
