Last season, two Group of Six programs—Tulane and James Madison—earned spots in the College Football Playoff. This year, at least one G6 team will once again have the opportunity to compete for a national championship
The road to glory begins in late August, with the first official games taking place in early September. The programs competing in the G6 conferences might not be national powerhouses (yet), but as always, they want to prove they can keep up with the big schools.
So who has the biggest potential to shine this upcoming season?
American
The American Conference might be one of the few ones without a clear favorite. Last season, Tulane, North Texas, and Navy dominated the league.
Tulane and North Texas lost their coaches to big-time programs, along with some players. Navy lost its star quarterback Blake Horvath. Memphis and UTSA went 4-4 in conference play, which was uncharacteristic. East Carolina was 6-2 but returns only 44% of their team.
Fair to say, the championship is up for grabs.
Then, there’s Army – another service academy boasting a high continuity team, with a 13-year head coach and returning quarterback in Cade Hellums. The Black Knights thrive on the triple option and have hopes that it will once again earn them a national ranking, like in 2024.
Service academies can’t rely on NIL deals, but they can rely on loyalty.
When NIL first took place – with transferring without penalties – many wondered if the service academies would be able to keep up. Fast forward, and the proof is louder than ever.
Army almost made the CFP two years ago. Navy finished last year’s campaign as the No. 23 in the country. Having players stay for four years and maintaining a balanced team pays its dividends.
And that’s why we predict Navy to win the conference. Replacing Horvath might seem like a tough task, but his likely replacement – Braxton Woodson – is entering his fourth year with the team, knowing the program like no one else. The Midshipmen also return eight defenders who played at least 200 snaps last season.
Predicted champion: Navy Midshipmen
Contenders: Army Black Knights, UTSA Roadrunners
Conference USA
Last season, Kennesaw State captured the Conference USA title. The Owls return nearly 50% of their team, giving them a legitimate chance to defend their crown. However, replacing nine key starters from last year's championship squad won't be easy. While the defense brings back more continuity, the offensive losses could create just enough of an opening for another program to seize the conference title.
One of them is Western Kentucky.
The Hilltoppers only return 32% of their team but signed an elite offensive lineman in Roq Montgomery. WKU have been consistent for years; yet, the Hilltoppers fell one step short of the title, failing to win the conference championship since 2016.
Quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. has a solid freshman campaign, throwing for 1,432 yards with a 65.6% completion rate. And if his performance dips, the team has a backup in Florida State transfer Brock Glenn, who still might overtake Tisdale in the battle for the starting job.
Liberty experienced a dip last year, collecting only four wins. But in the previous two seasons under head coach Jamey Chadwell, the program tallied 21 victories – the blueprint is there, and the Flames boast great odds to return to the winning side. Bringing back 57 % of the team, as well as their top running back, Jaylon Coleman.
Running the ball is what works best for Liberty, and this tool should work for them to be contenders again.
Predicted champion: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Contenders: Liberty Flames, Kennesaw State Owls
Mid-American
The Mid-American Conference presents one of the most intriguing races in the Group of Six.
While MAC programs operate with smaller budgets than most FBS schools, the league remains as competitive as ever. Last season, only one MAC team finished inside the top 78 of the national rankings, and the addition of UMass—which went 0-12 in 2025—did little to elevate the conference's overall profile.
Even so, there is plenty to be excited about heading into the 2026 season.
Let’s start with this – MAC teams like to schedule games against FBS powerhouses.
Western Michigan will face Michigan, Central Michigan will square off with Miami, Buffalo plays Penn State, and Kent State with Ball State will challenge Ohio State (on two separate occasions, though). Those games will be fun to watch and give the MAC teams more experience.
Western and Eastern Michigan return the highest percentage of team in the conference, while Miami (Ohio) ranks third. Miami and Western Michigan met in last season's MAC Championship Game, where the Broncos emerged with the conference title.
This offseason, Miami (OH) strengthened its backfield by adding running back Rodney Nelson, who rushed for 1,802 yards and 18 touchdowns at Monmouth last season. Head coach Chuck Martin enters his 13th season in Oxford.
Although his overall record sits at 72-74, that number doesn't tell the full story. Martin has steadily transformed the RedHawks into one of the MAC's most consistent and disciplined programs that’s due for a breakout season. And that’s why we’re rocking with the RedHawks.
Predicted champion: Miami (OH) RedHawks
Contenders: Western Michigan Broncos, Eastern Michigan Eagles
Mountain West
Hello, new-look Mountain West!
The conference recently underwent a major realignment. Boise State – who won the last three consecutive conference championships – left for the Pac-12. Other sturdy football programs left as well (SDSU, Fresno State). But the conference found solid replacements: Northern Illinois, UTEP, and North Dakota State. And now, it might be the most fun-to-watch conference in the Group of Six, in terms of title battles.
NDSU made the long-awaited jump to the FBS after spending the past two decades as the gold standard of the FCS. Since 2011, the Bison have captured 10 national championships, most recently in 2024.
They return 52% of their team and are led by proven head coach Tim Polasek. History shows that several programs have successfully transitioned from the FCS to the FBS and become competitive almost immediately—but none entered the top level with a resume as impressive as North Dakota State's.
Still, are the Bison that good to win in their debut season?
With Boise State gone, UNLV appears poised to become the conference's new flagship program. The Rebels made one of the biggest offseason additions by landing former five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold.
They also bolstered their defense with the addition of linebacker Cam Santee, a transfer from Holy Cross, giving them even more balance on both sides of the ball.
Also, we can’t forget about Air Force. The Falcons recorded two consecutive losing seasons but are bound to return to winning. Head coach Troy Calhoun is entering his 20th season, and he’s not a stranger to turning minor setbacks into major comebacks. Last season, the Falcons struggled defensively, but they return basically the entire defensive line – and everyone is going to be older, stronger, and more experienced.
The program also brings back now-junior quarterback Liam Szarka. This year, the team is going to be 22.5 years old on average, and it will make a difference.
Predicted champion: UNLV Rebels
Contenders: North Dakota State Bison, Air Force Falcons
Pac-12
The traditional Pac-12 dissolved during the 2024 realignment, as iconic brands such as UCLA, Oregon, and USC departed for other power conferences. Only Washington State and Oregon State remained, spending two seasons in limbo before the conference finally rebuilt its membership.
Now, the new-look Pac-12 is ready to crown its first champion of the modern era.
Eight teams will compete for that honor, and the race should be one of the most entertaining in the Group of Six. Four programs that combined to win 13 of the last 14 Mountain West championships—Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Utah State—have joined the conference.
Colorado State also made the move from the Mountain West, while Texas State arrived from the Sun Belt.
Clearly, if your name doesn’t feature “State”, you don’t qualify. So, which “State” has the best chance to become the inaugural champion of the new Pac-12?
Our pick is Boise State.
Over the past several years, the Broncos have established themselves as one of the most consistent programs outside the Power Four. They have combined roster continuity with smart coaching adjustments, repeatedly found ways to close out tight games, and developed a culture built on toughness and winning.
That foundation shouldn't disappear simply because the conference logo has changed.
Boise State returns 60% of their team from last season, including quarterback Maddux Madsen, while also strengthening its secondary with the addition of cornerback JeRico Washington Jr. Those pieces should keep the Broncos at the top of the conference from day one.
SDSU and Fresno State will fight for the other spot in the conference title game, but ultimately, nobody will find a recipe to beat the Broncos.
Predicted champion: Boise State Broncos
Contenders: San Diego State Aztecs, Fresno State Bulldogs
Sun Belt
Over the recent years, the Sun Belt Conference has gotten more successful and fun to watch. In 2022, James Madison took a leap of faith and joined the Sun Belt from FBS. Coached by Curt Cignetti at the time, JMU made a seamless transition and clinched a share of the regular season title. Even after Cignetti left for Indiana, the Dukes continued the trend and consistently stayed on top. They earned a trip to the CFP in 2025.
The key question is: can JMU post another dominant season? The 2026 team looks nothing like the conference-undefeated 2025 squad. The program hired a new head coach in Billy Napier. The school only returns 30% of their team – the third-worst number in the country. Out of 27 players who played more than 300 snaps, just four of them return. Napier brought in an eye-popping 41 transfers.
Old Dominion is certainly looking to dethrone JMU. Last season, the poised Monarchs handed Virginia Tech a 19-point loss and kept Indiana on their toes much longer than the Big Ten Hoosiers would have liked. They held a six-point lead over JMU in the second half before the Dukes went on a massive 42-0 run to shut down the Monarchs.
Troy had an identical record to Old Dominion, as the team went 6-2. But when the two teams met, the Monarchs shut down the Trojans 33-0. Troy’s continuity numbers are slightly better than JMU’s but worse than ODU’s. And that’s why we expect the Trojans to be competitive but ultimately fall short of the conference title.
Predicted champion: Old Dominion Monarchs
Contenders: James Madison Dukes, Troy Trojans
The playoff bracket will feature 12 teams. Champions from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC will receive automatic bids, regardless of their final ranking. Then the highest-ranked team from the Group of Six conferences will also earn an automatic berth, whether or not it wins its conference championship. Notre Dame – an independent team – will get an automatic bid if the Fighting Irish rank among the top-12 teams.
Four of the highest-ranked teams – regardless of their conference champion status – will be rewarded with top four seeds and first-round byes. Teams seeded 5-12 will compete in the first round, and the higher-seeded team will have a home-field advantage.
The CFP National Championship Game will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Monday, January 25, 2027.