Match News and Current Form
Japan’s final home game of 2026 will be a celebratory one regardless of the result, with a men’s and women’s double-header to commemorate the upcoming 100-year anniversary of the foundation of the Japan Football Rugby Union in November 2026. The main focus of Japan coach Eddie Jones, who has both the Nations Championship and the 2027 Rugby World Cup on the horizon, will be ensuring that Japan’s 20-15 win over Fiji in the 2026 Pacific Nations Cup final was no fluke. A youthful Brave Blossoms squad appear a long way from fulfilling their potential under Jones, illustrated by the team now having completed a seven-year drought without back-to-back wins against Tier 1 nations.
A victory here would bring an end to that long run and see Japan maintain ninth place in the World Rugby rankings ahead of their opponents, who would plummet below both Wales and Italy from tenth into 12th if they were defeated here. Warner Dearns and Kazuma Ueda have been recalled to the starting XV by Eddie Jones, who has also handed the number 15 shirt to 11-cap 28-year-old Takuro Matsunaga, the man who fulfilled the role in Japan’s three Nations Championship defeats.
Fiji rugby is not yet at rock bottom, but it’s getting close if they continue the trajectory that they have followed in 2026. They’re on a six-game losing streak against other Tier 1 teams since winning the 2025 PNC final over Japan, losing by 15+ points in all three Nations Championship matches - which they had to play at opposition venues in the height of summer for commercial reasons - whilst they were even made to work hard by world number 22 Canada in the PNC semis, winning by 16 points compared with a 45-point victory for Japan over the Canadians.
But this will begin a new era after interim coach Senirusi Seruvakula was replaced by 62-year-old South African Jake White, who led the Springboks to World Cup victory in 2007. Seruvakula is staying in the local setup to help White identify local talent and White is using his debut game to test two new starters. Counties Manukau back rower has immediately been propelled into the starting XV after making his first Fiji squad, whilst Fiji sevens player Nacani Boginisoko makes his debut on the right wing, outside of Isikeli Rabitu and Tuidraki Samusamuvodre. There’s also a new halves pairing after number ten Caleb Muntz was left out in favour of the versatile Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, having moved from fullback to be replaced by Isaac Rautmaitavuki-Kneepkens, who started on the left wing in the PNC final.
Head-to-Head History
Japan’s PNC final win was just their second over Fiji from the last eight H2Hs. The two meetings to take place across the last two years were both decided by less than one converted try. They have been typically humble scoring affairs, with five of the last eight producing under 55.5 total points.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The first half was the highest scoring half in seven of Japan’s eight games this year.
Japan have a 2-2 record in 2026 when scoring the first try and 2-2 when conceding it.
The betting favourite won 15 of Fiji’s last 16 internationals.
Fiji did not win both halves in any of their last nine games against teams other than Canada.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
One of Japan’s premier try scoring threats comes not from the wings but through 101kg hooker Mamoru Harada, who scored in each of their three mid-year games against Canada, USA and Fiji. His opposing number two, Fiji captain Tevita Ikanevere, can go one better: he scored in each of Fiji’s last four internationals!
For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore news website.
Betting Analysis
This match is expected to be as tight as the previous two between these teams, so perhaps there’s merit in backing either team to win by under 6.5 points in the margin market.
Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.
