Wallabies up against tough opponent and history as Schmidt begins farewell tour

Match News and Current Form

There’s no such thing as an easy international for Australia at present, even at home where they lost two of their three Rugby Championship games last year to finish a disappointing third in the standings after a promising Lions tour. Their November northern hemisphere tour became progressively worse as it wore on, eventually being rubber-stamped as their first winless European tour since 1958, but the board has not wavered from their transition plan to give Queensland Reds boss Les Kiss the keys to the dugout upon Schmidt’s retirement at the end of July.

Schmidt insists he’s not seeking another international gig as he approaches his 61st birthday, and whilst a reunion with his son in Ireland beckons, his focus firmly remains on giving the Wallabies the best possible start to this new tournament. Harry Wilson continues on as captain to lead out a side that is not without its changes, including a recall for fullback Jock Campbell 1,300 days after his last international and a debut for not just Josh Canham but potentially Brumbies second-rower Lachlan Shaw via the bench. The Wallabies have also gone ‘back to the future’ as veteran forward James Slipper answered Schmidt’s call to reverse his international retirement for a second time in 12 months to assist with the transition, perhaps in part due to Australia’s 100% scrum success rate in their last outing.

Ireland head coach Andy Farrell told reporters during the week that he believes Australia is capable of beating any team in world rugby and he knows first hand of what they’re capable of at their best, having taken charge of the British & Irish Lions in mid-2025 when Australia pushed them to the brink. Farrell would have gained a lot of intelligence and understanding from that series to bring into this fixture, this time with an Irish side that is in some excellent form after finishing second in the Six Nations Championship (SNC) with a healthy average of 29 points scored per game. 

Only a terrible opening 40 minutes against France in the first round stood between them and the trophy, but slow starts became a part of their 2026 as they did the bulk of their scoring after half-time in all but one game, even overcoming a nervy 10-5 half-time deficit away to Italy to win by just seven points. Farrell has had to deal with a whole host of injuries since then but has no shortage of options both forward and back, moving the versatile Jamie Osborne to left wing to start Hugo Keenan at fullback and Sam Prendergast at flyhalf, the latter of whom earned his call-up after an excellent finals series for URC winners Leinster.

Head-to-Head History

Australia were demolished 46-19 in Dublin last year in what was a fifth consecutive loss to Ireland. Their last meetings in Australia were a three-game series that Ireland won 2-1.

Hot Stats and Streaks

Australia lost 21 of their 24 matches as a betting outsider from 2023 to 2025. 

Australia lost six of the seven games in which they conceded the opening try last year.

Seven of Ireland’s last eight wins over Australia were by a single-digit margin. 

The second half was the highest scoring half in four of Ireland’s five games this year. 

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Australia loosehead prop Angus Bell was one of two Wallabies to score against Italy and France to end 2025, whilst he also made 12 tackles at a 100% success rate in his last international. Starting Irish winger Jamie Osborne was superb during the SNC, scoring in each of their last four games of the tournament. 

Jake Gordon and Will Skelton are out of the series for Australia. Ireland’s lengthy injury list includes Jack Crowley, captain Caelan Doris, Australia-born Mack Hansen, Paddy McCarthy, Tommy O'Brien and Andrew Porter.

Betting Analysis

Given Australia are a bit shaky defensively and could be outmuscled in the forward pack, we expect Ireland to win. 

Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.