Match News and Current Form
Tonga's tremendous effort against England two weeks ago guaranteed themselves an entry into the semi-finals courtesy of their superior head-to-head record, but head coach Kristian Woolf is pulling no punches having selected his strongest possible team, albeit having done so not knowing on Tuesday afternoon whether or not this game would be live. What is potentially the most stacked side in Tonga history, one even better on paper than the one that defeated New Zealand 25-24 two years ago, will have plenty of pride to regain after being thrashed by their Pacific brothers in last season's Pacific Championships, with their storied rivalry front of mind given there'll be no easy semi-final for either side and therefore no compelling reason to worry about their spot in the standings. Woolf's side are expected to be at their strongest after half-time, when they have scored seven of their 11 tries at this tournament.
Samoa have fielded a settled team throughout the tournament stacked with five State of Origin-credentialled backs, who have racked up an enormous 142 points against the hapless pair of Lebanon and France. The 2022 World Cup finalists will be looking to avoid complacency after two very soft kills and, despite going into this game as narrow outsiders, reiterate their credentials as a potential repeat runner-up. Samoa are set to advance to next week unless they lose this match by at least 47 points - an immensely unlikely outcome - and could draw confidence from a six-game winning streak against Tier 2 nations that includes two meetings with their brothers as they seek to win a fifth straight World Cup pool stage match.
Head-to-Head History
The head-to-head history has been as evenly fought as this match is expected to be, with Samoa winning 11 of the 22 meetings compared to ten for Tonga and a draw. Samoa won the two to take place this decade - 34-6 at last season's Pacific Championships and 20-18 at the previous World Cup.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The second half was the highest scoring half in each of Tonga's last four matches.
Eight of Tonga's last 11 games produced under 40.5 total points.
The second half also had more points than the first in each of Samoa's last four games.
Samoa conceded 30+ points in 14 of their last 15 defeats.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Tongan centre Tolutau Koula has been in stellar try scoring form in the second half of 2026, finding the line in each of Tonga's two games as well as in four of his last seven NRL matches. On a similar note, Storm's Samoan fullback Sualauvi Faalogo dotted down within 15 minutes in their two group games, whilst scoring tries in five of his last six NRL appearances.
Samoa fielded an unchanged squad, whilst Tonga recalled the quartet of Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Robert Toia, Jason Taumalolo and Siua Wong.
Click here to read the matchday squads for both teams.
Betting Analysis
Both teams should be looking to lock down their defensive lines and reserve a little bit of intensity and energy in anticipation of tougher tests next week, so we're expecting under 44.5 total points.