Gritty Scotland defence expected to keep All Blacks honest in Edinburgh

Match News and Current Form

With fixtures to come against Australia and Japan ahead of the finals later this month, Scotland will be targeting their sixth win from their last eight games (L2) this Saturday. Last in action in July, with a defeat against South Africa sandwiching victories against Argentina and Fiji, the Scots begin round four of the Nations Championship with only France above them in the Northern Hemisphere standings.

Townsend has opted to go with experience for this clash, with captain and centre Sione Tuipulotu and fly-half Finn Russell returning to the XV and bringing with them a combined 136 Scotland caps. Of the forwards who beat Fiji, only Rory Sutherland has kept his place with vice-captain Rory Darge also coming into the pack.

New Zealand have played together more of late, beating Australia in Auckland and in Sydney last month, much needed victories after they saw their 1-0 lead turn into a 3-1 series defeat in South Africa across August and September. Prior to those defeats, the All Blacks had lost only one of their six previous away Tests (W5), going down 33-19 to England at Twickenham.

With three wins from three, only points difference keeps New Zealand off the top spot in the Southern Hemisphere standings ahead of this round and Rennie has opted to make only two changes to the starting XV from the win in Australia with Ethan de Groot coming back at loosehead prop and Jordie Barrett returning at inside centre.

Head-to-Head History

This will be the 34th H2H between the sides with Scotland still yet to taste victory against the All Blacks (L31, D2).

Hot Stats and Streaks

Scotland have scored 14-23 points across each of their last six H2Hs with New Zealand.

Scotland have recorded exactly three tries in the first half of each of their last three home matches.

In last year’s Autumn internationals, New Zealand recorded 19-26 points in their matches versus Ireland, Scotland and England.

New Zealand had not led at half-time in any of their previous four Tests before their wins over Australia.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Scott Cummings has scored a second half try in both of Scotland’s last two victories while Peter Lakai has touched down for New Zealand before half time in their last two games.

Jamie Ritchie and Elliot Millar Mills are both out for Scotland while the All Blacks will be without Tyrel Lomax, Samisoni Taukei’aho and Shannon Frizell.

Click here to see the latest team selection news for the Nations Championship.

Betting Analysis

Based on their consistent points return in three of their four games in the UK and Ireland last November, backing New Zealand to score under 33.5 points looks like a good call.