Baptiste vs Andreeva - 16:00 CET
Match news and form
Mirra Andreeva reaches the semi-final at the Madrid Open for the first time after negotiating a complicated match against Leylah Fernandez. Handling a lengthy off-court interruption in the first set, the Russian saved three set points on her serve and later went on to defeat the Canadian, 7-6, 6-3.
Andreeva, who earned her career’s first WTA wins in Madrid in 2023, was turned away in the quarter-final stages of the tournament in 2024 and 2025. The third time has turned out to be the charm, as the teenager, who celebrated her 19th birthday on Wednesday, fends off a mix of challengers along the way.
While three of her four matches have ended in straight sets, Andreeva needed nothing short of a deciding-set tiebreak against Anna Bondar in the fourth round. Overall, she would be pleased to have reached her third semi-final in as many outings in this clay swing and touch 25 match wins in 2026.
Hailey Baptiste has pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament, and perhaps of the season, after shell-shocking defending champion and world no. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, 2-6, 6-2, 7-6. From down a break in the final set, she saved a whopping six match points (five on return) to prevail in two hours and 30 minutes.
Along with avenging last month’s Miami quarter-final loss, Baptiste has become the lowest-ranked player to score a comeback win over a world no. 1 on clay in four decades. This was, however, not her first upset of the campaign, having seen off Jasmine Paolini, 7-5, 6-3, and Belinda Bencic, 6-1, 6-7, 6-3.
Head-to-head
Andreeva leads 1-0 after winning 6-1, 6-3 in the third round of Wimbledon last year.
Stats & facts
Andreeva owns a fairly decent 6-3 career record in semi-finals and 2-0 at the WTA 1000 level (won Indian Wells and Dubai in 2025).
Andreeva has split the results of her first two semi-finals in this clay swing, winning the title in Linz but losing to Elena Rybakina at this stage in Stuttgart.
Baptiste seeks her fifth career top-10 win and the third in this campaign.
Baptiste lost to a Russian (Ekaterina Alexandrova) in her only previous WTA semi-final in Abu Dhabi earlier this season, 6-3, 6-7, 3-6.
Betting analysis
Baptiste has made a mockery of her underdog status in the last three matches and is all set to debut in the top 30 next week. Nevertheless, the American, who holds half a dozen top-20 wins in 2026, will remain the underdog against Andreeva.
Andreeva has had her moments of self-doubt this fortnight, but she currently stands 22-2 against outside top-20 players in 2026 for a reason and remains the favorite to reach her joint-biggest final.
Baptiste in 2026
Best results: Abu Dhabi (semi-finals)
Best results on clay: Madrid (semi-finals)
Record: 16-10
Record in the last 10 matches: 7-3
Record on clay: 5-2
Record against top 10: 3-3 (career 4-9)
Record in WTA 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 0-0)
Record in semi-finals: 0-1 (career 0-1)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (round of 32)
Baptiste at the Madrid Open
Career record: 5-2
Best result: semi-finals (2026)
Last year's result: round of 64
Record in semi-finals: 0-0
Preparation: Charleston (round of 32), Rouen (round of 16)
Road to the semi-finals: K. Quevedo (6-1, 6-4), (8) Paolini (7-5, 6-3), (11) Bencic (6-1, 6-7, 6-3), (1) Sabalenka (2-6, 6-2, 7-6)
Andreeva in 2026
Best results: Linz, Adelaide (title)
Best results on clay: Linz (title)
Record: 25-7
Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1
Record on clay: 11-1
Record against top 50: 12-7 (career 56-34)
Record in WTA 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 2-0)
Record in semi-finals: 2-1 (career 6-3)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (round of 16)
Andreeva at the Madrid Open
Career record: 14-3
Best result: semi-finals (2026)
Last year's result: quarter-finals
Record in semi-finals: 0-0
Preparation: Linz (title), Stuttgart (semi-finals)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, P. Udvardy (7-5, 6-2), Galfi (6-3, 6-2), Bondar (6-7, 6-3, 7-6), (24) Fernandez (7-6, 6-3)
Kostyuk vs Potapova - 21:30 CET
Match news and form
Anastasia Potapova only had a few minutes of notice when she was called on to play Shuai Zhang on Friday as the lucky loser. The Russian-born Austrian has come a long way since then and has now surged into her biggest career semi-final after edging former world no. 1 Karolina Pliskova, 6-1, 6-7, 6-3.
Since losing to Sinja Kraus in the final qualifying round, Potapova fought back to defeat two consecutive Grand Slam champions, starting with her close wins over Jelena Ostapenko, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, and Elena Rybakina, 7-6, 6-4. Her impressive clay-court season now further improves to a win-loss of 9-2.
Potapova was having an ordinary time in the first three months of the season, with a third round at the Australian Open and a quarter-final in Cluj-Napoca. The former world no. 21 began turning her fortune around with a runner-up finish to Mirra Andreeva in Linz in her adopted homeland.
Marta Kostyuk stood at the cusp of making a mess of her quarter-final match against Linda Noskova after being unable to serve out the first set on two attempts. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian halted the Czech, 7-6, 6-0, to record her 10th consecutive win on clay courts this month.
Kostyuk landed on clay after skipping the Middle East and winning only two matches in March. In response, she won her second career title in Rouen, albeit without facing multiple top-50 foes, and now has won all four matches in Madrid in straight sets, including beating Jessica Pegula and Yulia Putintseva.
Head-to-head
The series is tied at 2-2. The pair have met on all three surfaces. Kostyuk won their latest two encounters in straight sets, in Indian Wells in 2024 and in Madrid last year, with the latter being their sole clay-court clash.
Stats & facts
Potapova has lost nine of her last 14 semi-finals on tour (overall 7-9), but won the latest two, 2025 Cluj and this month's Linz.
There have been only three instances when Potapova beat three top-50 players in the same event, most recently in Madrid last year.
Kostyuk is 5-1 in WTA semi-finals since the start of 2023, but lost her lone career WTA 1000 semi-final to Iga Swiatek at the 2024 Indian Wells.
Kostyuk stands 10-1 against outside top-50 players in 2026, only losing to Elsa Jacquemot in an injury-marred match at the Australian Open.
Betting analysis
Potapova, the only unseeded player left in the draw, has become the first Austrian to reach a semi-final at a WTA 1000-level event since 2007. While that is an impressive feat, it might not help her case against Kostyuk, who is brimming with confidence off her winning streak and is expected to win this clash of middle-ranked players.
Kostyuk in 2026
Best results: Rouen (title); Brisbane (final)
Best results on clay: Rouen (title)
Record: 16-4
Record in the last 10 matches: 10-0
Record on clay: 9-0
Record against top 50-100: 9-1 (career 67-24)
Record in WTA 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 0-1)
Record in semi-finals: 2-0 (career 5-4)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (round of 128)
Kostyuk at the Madrid Open
Career record: 8-6
Best result: semi-finals (2026)
Last year's result: quarter-finals
Record in semi-finals: 0-0
Preparation: Rouen (title)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Putintseva (6-1, 6-3), (5) Pegula (6-1, 6-4), McNally (6-2, 6-3), (13) Noskova (7-6, 6-0)
Potapova in 2026
Best results: Linz (final)
Best results on clay: Linz (final)
Record: 16-10
Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2
Record on clay: 9-2
Record against top 30: 2-4 (career 25-50)
Record in WTA 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 0-0)
Record in semi-finals: 1-0 (career 7-9)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (round of 32)
Potapova at the Madrid Open
Career record: 9-4
Best result: semi-finals (2026)
Last year's result: round of 16
Record in semi-finals: 0-0
Preparation: Linz (final)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Shuai Zhang (6-3, 6-1), (21) Ostapenko (4-6, 6-4, 6-4), (2) Rybakina (7-6, 6-4), Pliskova (6-1, 6-7, 6-3)