Why Carlos Baleba could be the perfect replacement for Casemiro at Man United

Carlos Baleba in action for Brighton
Carlos Baleba in action for BrightonGlyn KIRK / AFP / AFP / Profimedia / Flashscore

Depending on your point of view, Man Utd have either shown their true colours by not matching Tottenham Hotspur's bid for Mateus Fernandes, or have been more than sensible given the current circumstances.

Fernandes left West Ham to sign for the North Londoners for a club record £85m, representing a healthy profit for the Irons, and whilst the Red Devils' interest in the Portuguese midfielder was well known, they clearly weren't prepared to commit such a large amount of their transfer kitty on the 21-year-old.

Man Utd didn't want a bidding war for Mateus Fernandes

It shouldn't be forgotten that in both of his Premier League seasons to date, Fernandes has been relegated, so even if his numbers shine when compared to his colleagues, they still haven't quite been good enough to stop his teams from dropping into the Championship.

With Champions League football back on the agenda next season for United, perhaps there's a school of thought that the 21-year-old just isn't quite there yet in terms of his skill set. Or, very simply, the North West giants believe the player was overpriced and refused to be drawn into a bidding war.

By allowing Spurs to sign the player unchallenged, it was obvious that United's board and Michael Carrick believed that other options would prove more beneficial, and news that they are again ramping up their interest in Brighton and Hove Albion's Carlos Baleba shouldn't really come as a surprise.

There has been a long-standing pursuit of the 22-year-old, which the Seagulls have managed to fight off to this point; however, now may be the right time for all parties to construct a deal to everyone's benefit.

United need a physical presence to replace Casemiro

With Casemiro having left, it's clear that Carrick needs a physical presence to replace him, and ideally a player who scores goals too.

Finding one with such a profile is more difficult than it sounds, and perhaps indicates why cost very evidently comes quickly into the conversation.

When United made an enquiry 12 months ago, they were quoted in the region of £100m, which was quickly rebuffed.

As the player himself has apparently made it known since then that he wants to play for United, that will likely afford the Red Devils a small discount, though it's understood Brighton would still want to get as much as possible from any negotiation, and certainly not less than £70m in any event.

New season is only seven weeks away

With the World Cup taking almost all of the focus away from transfer deals, it's largely been forgotten that pre-season games will begin shortly, and the new season is just seven weeks away.

If United do want to acquire Baleba, then now is not the time to dilly-dally or quibble over the odd few pounds here and there.

Being prudent is all well and good, but sometimes one needs to take a broader view of the situation.

So what would United actually be getting for their money?

For a start, they can't actually rely on him for goals in the same way they did with Casemiro, unless they're going to free him up to some degree.

Great passing stats but improvement needed in other areas

That's because, in the three years he's been with the Seagulls, he's found the net on only four occasions in all competitions and provided two assists.

When compared with Casemiro's 16 goals and six assists in the same time frame, well, there is no comparison.

Carlos Baleba pass map - Premier League 2025/26
Carlos Baleba pass map - Premier League 2025/26Opta by Stats Perform

At 22, there's clearly a lot more to come from Baleba in that respect, but it is a marked difference.

To reverse the perception that, perhaps, United could be taking a chance on the Cameroonian, it's worth noting his 86.6% pass completion across last season, which was one of the highest in the Brighton squad.

111 ball recoveries as well as 231 one-on-one duels attempted (the seventh highest) speak of a player more than willing to put in a shift when required.

Carlos Baleba radar graphic - Premier League 2025/26
Carlos Baleba radar graphic - Premier League 2025/26Opta by Stats Perform

36 clearances, 34 interceptions and a tackle success rate of 57.5% also add to the youngster's resume and make a compelling argument for the Red Devils to acquire his services.

Whilst there is certainly room for improvement in many aspects of his game, there aren't too many better places than Carrington or the Theatre of Dreams in which to broaden your education of the beautiful game.

Once Brighton accepts that Baleba's mind is elsewhere, the quicker he then signs on the dotted line, the better for all concerned.

Jason Pettigrove has been the features writer for Flashscore since 2025, utilising Opta data to form the basis of his articles. He has previously worked for high profile football clubs, news and media outlets, both in print and digital, and can usually be found watching FC Barcelona when time permits. You can read more of his pieces here.

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