AEK Athens have been almost perfect at the Allwyn Arena this term but will be severely tested as free-scoring Real Madrid arrive for this UEFA Champions League (UCL) league-phase clash.
Match News and Current Form
AEK Athens have struggled in the UCL league phase this season (W1, L2), conceding at least three times during those two defeats, leaving them with work to do if they’re to move into the top 24. While the Yellow-Blacks’ struggles on the road against elite European opposition are clear, they boast an impressive record here, losing just one of their last six major European home fixtures (W4, D1). Their form at home this season is even more encouraging (W7), especially as they’ve scored 30 goals while conceding just once, suggesting they could make life difficult for their illustrious visitors at the Allwyn Arena.
Madrid are one of five teams to have won their first three league phase games this term and morale is high ahead of this clash having followed up their 2-1 El Clásico win over Barcelona with Sunday’s comfortable 3-0 success over Racing Santander. After scoring four times in both of their last two European games, Los Blancos could register three consecutive UCL wins while netting 4+ goals, something they last achieved in 2014. As none of their last 34 group/league phase UCL away games ended goalless, and they netted at least twice in each of their last three (W2, L1), goals seem inevitable as the 15-time European Cup/UCL champions head to Greece.
Head-to-Head History
AEK have only lost one of four previous H2Hs (W1, D2), and are unbeaten across both previous meetings they hosted (W1, D1).
Hot Stats and Streaks
AEK have never won a UCL game after conceding first (D6, L15).
All four of AEK’s historical European Cup/UCL proper victories at home came via a 1-0 scoreline (D9, L6).
All three of Madrid’s UCL games this term saw scoring after the 75th minute.
Four of Madrid’s last six away UCL fixtures produced over 5.5 goals.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Former Madrid striker Luka Jović scored AEK’s last goal, against PAOK in the Greek Cup last month, while four of his last five club goals arrived after half-time. Jude Bellingham is poised to break Iker Casillas’ record and become the youngest player to reach 60 UCL appearances here, while his goal against Racing on Sunday was his 50th for the club - his last five all came before half-time.
AEK goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha missed their weekend defeat to Panathinaikos with a wrist injury, while Federico Valverde was absent for Madrid against Racing due to a muscle injury.
Betting Analysis
With the visitors going from strength to strength under José Mourinho and scoring 17 goals across their last five fixtures, backing Madrid to win and over 3.5 goals looks appealing.
Author: John Pennington