The bottom-two sides in UEFA Nations League (UNL) Group C4 face off when Luxembourg welcome an out-of-form Bulgaria side they beat in the opening round.
Match News and Current Form
Luxembourg got off to a flying start this UNL campaign when they beat Bulgaria 2-1 on the road, but subsequent 3-0 and 1-0 losses to Iceland and Estonia swiftly tempered expectations. Conceding first in all three of those games offers manager Jeff Strasser an immediate avenue to improve upon ahead of this match, but that will perhaps be the least of his concerns given the Red Lions have won just one of their last eight competitive home matches (D1, L6). Luckily, there’s no threat of relegation with League D ceasing to exist after this UNL campaign, and it’s perhaps just as well given Luxembourg have exhibited some woeful form in this competition, winning just one of their last nine UNL group games (D3, L5).
No relegation will be music to the ears of Bulgarian fans too, who have watched their side make a winless start to their UNL endeavours (D1, L2) after slumping to a 3-0 loss against Iceland last time out. Aleksandar Dimitrov resigning as manager midway through the campaign created some upheaval, and interim boss Atanas Ribarski will perhaps feel that was to his detriment as he lost his first game in charge. Picking up where his predecessor left off, Bulgaria have now won just one of their last 12 competitive matches (D2, L9), and their demise has been most evident on the road, where they’ve lost their last five competitive away games without scoring.
Head-to-Head History
Luxembourg claimed their first victory over Bulgaria with a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture after 17 failed attempts (D3, L14), but they failed to score in four of the last five home H2Hs.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Five of Luxembourg’s last six games saw a goal scored before the 20th minute.
Just one of Luxembourg’s last 12 matches saw both teams score.
Nine of Bulgaria’s last 11 competitive matches featured over 2.5 goals.
Just one of Bulgaria’s last six matches was decided by more than a one-goal margin.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Luxembourg’s Vincent Thill may hold the key to victory, since he’s lost just once in his last 15 goalscoring outings for club or country (W10, D4). Bulgaria’s Asen Chandarov might be keen to have an early say, since five of his last nine goals have served as the match opener, including in the reverse fixture.
Luxembourg have lost Danel Sinani and Laurent Jans to injury in this UNL window, while Bulgaria don’t seem to have any fresh absentees.
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Betting Analysis
Both teams have struggled for goals since they last met, so betting on under 2.5 goals seems logical.
Author: Peter Stavrinou