Two teams who won last weekend will meet in Cardiff when Wales host New Zealand in round five of the Nations Championship.
Match News and Current Form
Although the game was eventually settled by only a seven-point margin, Wales were never behind against Japan last weekend and that victory means that Steve Tandy’s side are continuing their rise with three wins from their last five Tests, having since jumped above both Italy and Japan to return to tenth in the World Rugby rankings. Two of those victories came in the Nations Championship and they begin this round in fifth with a ten-point cushion above Italy and only five points from England in second.
Tandy has made four changes to his XV which includes number eight Taine Basham starting an international for the first time in four years and Gabriel Hamer-Webb coming in for his second cap on the wing as the hosts target a fourth win in a row in matches in Cardiff.
Dave Rennie has changed eight of his starting XV who triumphed 43-21 against Scotland last weekend, New Zealand’s second win in a row by that scoreline, with full-back Beauden Barrett captaining the All Blacks for the first time in what will be his 149th international appearance - extending the record he already holds for most internationals by any back.
Rennie’s side are targeting their fourth win in a row and their third successive away victory with the top place in the Southern Hemisphere group still up for grabs. South Africa currently lead the way with a superior points difference and New Zealand will look to make a dent in that in Cardiff irrespective of how the leaders fare in Paris on Friday.
Head-to-Head History
New Zealand have won all 34 H2Hs from 1963 onwards. Each of their five wins over Wales in the last ten years came with a margin of at least 15 points (average: 26.8).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Wales were ahead at half-time in each of their last three home games.
Wales have scored a try within the opening 20 minutes of seven of their last eight home matches.
New Zealand scored 40+ points in five of the last six H2Hs, including each of the last three which all took place in Cardiff.
New Zealand have scored exactly seven tries in each of their last three games.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Louis Rees-Zammit scored a try in his last H2H against the All Blacks, last November, and also crossed the line for Wales last week while Josh Moorby has scored a second-half try in each of his last three internationals.
Tomas Francis will miss the rest of this campaign through injury for Wales while Will Jordan and Jordie Barrett are out for New Zealand.
Click here to see the latest team selection news for the Nations Championship.
Betting Analysis
Based on most recent H2Hs and Wales already having conceded 211 points in four Nations Championship games, backing New Zealand to score 50+ points looks like a good option.
Author: Tom Penn