How the Netherlands can qualify for the Nations League quarterfinals

It wasn't a big surprise when Ronald Koeman resigned in July. The Netherlands played a disappointing FIFA World Cup and were eliminated in the round of 32 by Morocco, marking another summer of pain for Oranje.

It was surprising when Xavi was announced as the new head coach. The Catalan football legend became the first foreign manager of the Netherlands since the 1970s and immediately began building a winning culture.

That has already reaped its rewards, with Oranje leading Group A2 in the UEFA Nations League ahead of Greece, Germany, and Serbia. With just two rounds to go, what exactly do the Netherlands need to reach the last eight? Flashscore explains.

Matchday 5

Friday, November 13th: The Netherlands - Greece (20.45 CEST)

Friday, November 13th: Serbia - Germany (20.45 CEST)

The last international window of the calendar year starts with a crucial match for the Netherlands, as nearest rivals Greece come to town. The two nations are tied on points, with the Netherlands only leading on goals scored. The rivals are level in the first tiebreaker (H2H) after their 2-2 draw in Thessaloniki.

In the other game, Germany, who are three points behind Greece and the Netherlands, travel to Serbia. The Serbians are on the brink of elimination, with a draw enough to seal their return to League B. A win looks likely for Germany, making the clash in Amsterdam even more important.

In the knowledge that the top two teams in the group qualify for the quarterfinals, the Netherlands can clinch their ticket in the following scenarios:

• The Netherlands beat Greece

• The Netherlands and Greece draw, Serbia win

The Netherlands would have to beat Greece to immediately punch their ticket to the quarterfinals. A win would officially make it impossible for Greece to overtake Oranje on H2H, and with Serbia already out of sight, a top-two finish would be guaranteed.

If the Netherlands and Greece, the Dutch would need Germany to lose in Belgrade, which would put the Netherlands and Greece four points clear of Germany.

Matchday 6

Monday, November 16th: Germany - the Netherlands (20.45 CEST)

Monday, November 16th: Greece - Serbia (20.45 CEST)

The last matchday sees the Netherlands rekindle the age-old rivalry with Germany, with the two nations meeting in Berlin. At the same time, Greece host Serbia in Volos.

Matchday 5 will determine what the Netherlands need to qualify for the quarterfinals on the final matchday, so we break it down into different scenarios.

The Netherlands beat Greece

The Netherlands are already through to the quarterfinals.

The Netherlands draw against Greece, Germany beat Serbia

The Netherlands and Greece would be on 9 points, while Germany would be just one point behind. This would make matchday 6 absolutely crucial and add another element of intensity to the rivals' matchup. The following scenarios would see the Netherlands clinch their quarterfinal ticket:

• The Netherlands beat Germany

• The Netherlands and Germany draw

• Germany beat the Netherlands, Serbia beat Greece

If the Netherlands even grab a draw, it'll be enough to clinch a quarterfinal ticket. The Netherlands would be on 10 points, while Germany would still trail them. Greece can beat Serbia and jump to first, but the Netherlands will still be second in the group.

The Netherlands draw against Greece, Germany draw against Serbia

The Netherlands and Greece would be on nine points, while Germany would trail the two nations by three points. The following scenarios would see the Netherlands clinch their quarterfinal ticket: 

• The Netherlands beat Germany

• The Netherlands and Germany draw

• Germany beat the Netherlands, Serbia beat Greece

This scenario would see a draw be plenty for the Netherlands to punch their ticket. A win in Berlin would, again, automatically seal it.

The Netherlands lose to Greece, Germany draw against Serbia

Greece would have already sealed their quarterfinal ticket in this scenario, making a result in Berlin more than crucial. The following scenarios would see the Netherlands clinch their quarterfinal ticket: 

• The Netherlands beat Germany

• The Netherlands and Germany draw

Under no circumstances can the Netherlands lose in Berlin. A loss would automatically mean Germany would leapfrog the Netherlands, who'd fall to third and hope eight points would be enough to avoid the relegation play-offs. They would have to be one of the two best third-placed teams in League A.

The Netherlands lose to Greece, Germany beat Serbia

Greece would have already sealed their quarterfinal ticket in this scenario, while the Netherlands and Germany would be tied on points. It would make the Berlin clash an all-or-nothing battle. The following scenarios would see the Netherlands clinch their quarterfinal ticket: 

• The Netherlands beat Germany

In this scenario, Germany would also automatically have a better goal difference, with the Netherlands currently on +2 and Germany on +1. That would mean a draw would make the H2H tiebreaker redundant, and goal difference would come into play, in which case Germany would finish second. 

Paul Winters is Flashscore's Netherlands country manager, having previously worked for Flashscore's Netherlands desk. Paul is an expert on the Eredivisie and also specialises in the NFL, as well as a plethora of other sports. Residing in 'sunny' Katwijk, you can follow all of the news from the Netherlands here. 

You can find Paul on X and LinkedIn.