AC Milan v Fiorentina (19/10/2025)

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Two of Italian football’s juggernauts collide at San Siro as a resurgent AC Milan host an out-of-sorts Fiorentina.

Match News and Current Form

After a miserable 2024/25 campaign, Milan look to have turned a page by making a strong start to this season that puts them among the early title contenders (W4, D1, L1). The Rossoneri have avoided defeat in their last five league outings, and could make it six here for the first time since early 2024. It’s unsurprising that under returning boss Massimiliano Allegri that Milan’s strong foundations have been laid in defence, conceding just three times across their first six matches, keeping a pre-round joint-league high four clean sheets therein.

Fiorentina’s spirits could not be much lower after failing to win any of their opening six Serie A matches in a season (D3, L3) for only the third time in their history. Their misery has been compounded by having dropped eight points from winning positions in the league already this term, compared to ten in the entirety of the previous Serie A campaign. It is hardly the backdrop which Stefano Pioli would have wanted heading into his 500th Serie A game as a manager, as he faces the club that he led to Scudetto glory in 2021/22.

Head-to-Head History

Milan have won 78 of their 170 Serie A H2Hs (D45, L47), and have only beaten Roma on more occasions in the competition. Fiorentina did avoid defeat across both meetings last season (W1, D1).

Win Probability
Win ProbabilityOpta by StatsPerform

Hot Stats and Streaks

Six of Milan’s last seven wins have been accompanied by a clean sheet. 

Milan have not scored a home goal after the 64th minute this season.

None of Fiorentina’s last 15 Serie A away games have been decided by more than a one-goal margin.

Another stalemate here would mark the first time Fiorentina have drawn four successive Serie A away matches since December 2018.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Rafael Leão has scored four Serie A goals against Fiorentina, only netting more times in the competition against Lecce and Cagliari (both five), while his first goal in the division came against La Viola in September 2019. Rolando Mandragora has scored twice this season, but has not been on the winning side in any of his last three goalscoring appearances (D1, L2).

Christian Pulisic is a doubt for Milan after injuring his hamstring on international duty, while Adrien Rabiot (calf) is out. Fiorentina’s Moise Kean (ankle) may also miss this game.

For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.

Betting Analysis

Fiorentina have been resolute on the road this season, but given Milan’s form so far, it's worth backing Milan to win and over 2.5 total goals.

Author: James Hilsum

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