Japan v Australia (25/10/2025)

The first leg of Australia’s five-game end-of-year tour takes them to Japan for their first showdown against former head coach Eddie Jones.

Match News and Current Form

Japan coach Eddie Jones would never publicly admit it, but there must be a hint of personal vendetta fuelling his preparations for his first meeting with former employers Australia since being sacked at the end of the 2023 Rugby World Cup (RWC). Jones told Australian radio on Friday that he is at peace with his history as Australian coach and “knew (he) was on a hiding to nothing” when he accepted the role a second time, but this is nonetheless a crucial game for Jones and his country with the international rugby schedule at a crossroads. 

That’s because Japan are constantly pressing to be more respected as a Tier 1 nation, but they need to deliver better on-field results to make a solid case. They narrowly lost the final of the 2025 Pacific Nations Cup to Fiji last month and have a poor 1-6 record against other Tier 1 teams since the end of the 2023 RWC, sharing a two-game mid-year series at home to Wales 1-1 after two tightly contested affairs. Perhaps Jones’ 9-1 record against the Wallabies as England coach can carry over. 

There are fewer physically and mentally gruelling tours than a Grand Slam one, which is why Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt is easing the team’s way back into action with 13 changes to his starting XV compared with the previous one that lost the Bledisloe Cup 2-0 to New Zealand. Australia have for the most part exceeded expectations in 2025, covering the main pre-match handicap in the majority of their games, but their output of just 24 points per match this year isn’t great by Tier 1 standards even despite the difficulty of opposition. 

This game is outside the international window which has narrowed Schmidt’s selection pool to an extent, with Exeter Chiefs pair Tom Hooper and Len Ikitau amongst those not available until the team heads to England next week. It’s nonetheless imperative that he accepts nothing short of a victory here with Australia currently in seventh place on the World Rugby rankings – narrowly behind Argentina – and needing to finish 2025 in sixth place to earn a seeding at the 2027 Rugby World Cup, which would ensure they’re not drawn alongside any other top-six nations. 

Head-to-Head History

Japan have never defeated Australia in six attempts, the most recent of which was at the National Stadium in 2021 (L 32-23). That was the only of the six to have a losing margin of under 19 points. 

Hot Stats and Streaks

Three-quarters of Japan’s games since the start of 2024 exceed the main total points handicap.

Japan’s seven matches this year (inc. Maori All Blacks) are averaging 65 points per game. 

Australia scored at least 30 points in all six games against Japan.

Australia were the first team to ten points in only three of their ten games this year. 

Matchday squads

Japan XV: 15–Yoshitaka Yazaki, 14–Kippei Ishida, 13–Dylan Riley, 12–Shogo Nakano, 11–Tomoki Osada, 10–Lee Seung-sin, 9–Shinobu Fujiwara, 8–Michael Leitch, 7–Kanji Shimokawa, 6–Ben Gunter, 5–Warner Dearns, 4–Jack Cornelsen, 3–Shuhei Takeuchi, 2–Hayate Era, 1–Kenta Kobayashi

(Japan bench: 16–Kenji Sato, 17–Ryosuke Iwaihara, 18–Keijiro Tamefusa, 19–Tyler Paul, 20–Tiennan Costley, 21–Kenta Fukuda, 22–Charlie Lawrence, 23–Sam Greene)

Australia XV: 15–Andrew Kellaway, 14–Corey Toole, 13–Josh Flook, 12–Hunter Paisami, 11–Dylan Pietsch, 10–Tane Edmed, 9–Jake Gordon, 8–Rob Valetini, 7–Carlo Tizzano, 6–Nick Champion de Crespigny, 5–Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4–Jeremy Williams, 3–Zane Nonggorr, 2–Josh Nasser, 1–Angus Bell

(Australia bench: 16–Billy Pollard, 17–Aidan Ross, 18–Tom Robertson, 19–Josh Canham, 20–Harry Wilson, 21–Ryan Lonergan, 22–Hamish Stewart, 23–Filipo Daugunu)

Key Players to Watch

Australian-born back rower Ben Gunter found the line in two of his three Pacific Nations Cup starts for Japan. Wallabies number seven Carlo Tizzano scored tries in five of his last 11 games of the year for Western Force and followed that up with another in game two against New Zealand last time out. 

Betting Analysis

Japan’s four Pacific Nations Cup games were all tremendously high-scoring so it could be worth backing over 59.5 total points here.