Holger Rune has had an underwhelming season, falling well short of expectations. Despite this, he still has a chance to return to the top 10 in the ATP rankings, a factor that somewhat cushions the impact of his struggles. However, Rune has not done enough to capitalize on the poor form of his peers and remains just outside the top 10. He came close to reclaiming his spot in Tokyo recently but fell short when it mattered, losing in straight sets to Jenson Brooksby in the quarterfinals.
The Dane has occasionally showcased his true potential this year, delivering impressive results such as winning the Barcelona title over Carlos Alcaraz. Until recently, he was also the only player to take a set off both Jannik Sinner and Alcaraz in 2025. However, recurring fitness issues have consistently prevented him from building sustained momentum. After his loss in Tokyo, Rune noted that he was not in optimal physical condition and chose not to retire from the match to avoid disappointing the crowd.
It has been less than a week since Rune reported feeling unwell in Tokyo, and it remains uncertain whether he has fully recovered, especially with harsher conditions awaiting in Shanghai. His record at the Shanghai Masters has also been underwhelming, exiting in the second round (after a first-round bye) in 2023 and the round of 16 in 2024, losing to Brandon Nakashima and Taylor Fritz respectively on those occasions.
Sebastian Báez capitalized on a physically struggling Zhizhen Zhang in the first round at Shanghai Masters, snapping a three-match losing streak and finding some much-needed success during a challenging stretch. His next target will be to secure back-to-back wins, something he has not managed since his run to the final at ATP Bucharest in April. This is a disappointing run for a player who has been inside the top 50 all year and even claimed an ATP 500 title earlier this season in Rio de Janeiro.
It will not be easy for the Argentine to end his drought, as he has never beaten a top-20 player on hard courts. Throughout his career, he has faced them 16 times on this surface and lost every single match, winning only two sets. His only such encounter in 2025 came recently in Tokyo, where he fell in straight sets to Carlos Alcaraz, although the Spaniard appeared vulnerable after suffering an ankle injury during the match.
Head-to-Head: Tied 3-3. Sebastian Báez is no match for Holger Rune on hard courts, but he is capable of remaining competitive and grinding out a long, tough match if Rune’s physical level dips. It will be up to the Dane to maintain his fitness and avoid giving Báez any openings.
