Francisco Cerundolo must have been greatly relieved to recover from a break deficit in the second set and close out his match in straight sets against Adrian Mannarino in the Shanghai opener, as his current level leaves little margin for error in a deciding set. In fact, his last two main-tour matches ended in deciding-set losses, from two sets up against Leandro Riedi at the US Open and one set up against Learner Tien in Beijing.
Few, including Cerundolo himself, would have expected him to be in such a low-confidence, vulnerable position. Earlier this year, he was one of the most in-form, high-flying players, producing consistent results week after week. However, a sudden dip in form and declining fitness has derailed his season. Despite this, he remains in a strong position at No. 21 in the rankings, and with few major points to defend for the rest of the year, even a slight improvement in form could set him up for a strong finish.
During the prolific first half of the year, Cerundolo excelled particularly at the Masters level, reaching at least the quarterfinals three times, including two runs on hard courts at Miami and Indian Wells. He also holds a perfect 5-0 record in third-round matches at Masters events in 2025.
Zizou Bergs also struggled to maintain his form after a prolific stretch earlier this year, but a series of favorable matchups against physically vulnerable opponents has allowed him to collect some valuable wins during the Asian swing. Last week in Tokyo, he defeated a tired Alejandro Tabilo in three sets, and at the Shanghai Masters this week, his first-round opponent, Sebastian Korda, has battled fitness issues all year, while Casper Ruud retired during the third set in the second round.
This is a much-needed result for the Belgian, who lost momentum after reaching the final in ’s-Hertogenbosch during the grass-court swing, followed by a seven-match losing streak and a long gap without consecutive wins until this week. Despite these struggles, his ranking remains secure inside the top 50, thanks to his strong form in the first half of the season.
Bergs has established himself on the main tour with solid results over the past two years, but he still has much to prove in high-profile events. At Masters tournaments, for example, he has never advanced to the round of 16 and has only played one third-round match at this level, which ended in a straight-sets loss to Matteo Berrettini in Miami.
Head-to-head: 0-0. Both players have experienced similar seasons, starting the year strongly with career-high rankings and entering a dry patch in recent months. While neither is at their best currently, Francisco Cerundolo’s greater experience and proven track record at the Masters level make him the deserved favorite.
