The NBA Playoffs are just around the corner, and starting on April 18th, 16 of the league’s 30 teams will battle it out in the playoffs. After the last slate of regular season games on April 12th, the top ten teams from each conference (15 teams each) advance to the postseason.
First, the teams ranked seventh to 10th in both the East and West will battle for the final two playoff spots in the Play-In games that take place between April 14th and April 17th, a format that was first introduced in the 2019-2020 season.
The seventh and eighth seeds face off for a direct ticket to the playoffs as the official seventh seed. The winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup then gets a chance to claim the final postseason spot by beating the loser of the 7 vs. 8 game. Unlike the following playoff rounds, these are single-elimination games.
After that, the first team to win four games (best-of-seven) moves on to the next round.
First Repeat Champions Since 2018?
Since the Golden State Warriors defended their title at the end of the 2017-2018 season, no NBA team has managed to repeat as champions the following year. Rarely in that span has the chance for a repeat champion been as high as it is this year.
After last season’s outstanding run, the Oklahoma City Thunder are once again at the top of the league.
Led by MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 2.2 stocks (steals plus blocks), the team has managed to put up an NBA-best 61-16 record with five games left on their schedule.
But there are a handful of teams that have the best chance to derail OKC's repeat hopes - two of which feature MVP candidates themselves.
Who Has the Best Chance to Stop OKC?
In the West, the San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets are lurking. Led by their dominant big men, both teams have shown they can cause OKC problems.
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs have won three out of four head-to-head matchups against the defending champs this season.
Time and again, the Thunder lack the size to contain the Frenchman in the paint. Defensively, the 7-foot-4 alien is almost impossible to get past.
Nikola Jokic may not be as much of a defensive force as the 22-year-old in terms of blocks, but his physicality allows him to exploit similar weaknesses and still leads the NBA in steals since 2019-2020. That’s why the Denver Nuggets, who were crowned champions in 2023, can’t be counted out. The Colorado squad was rarely at full strength this season, but now they could be peaking at just the right time as they also lead the NBA scoring (121.4 ppg).
Unfortunately, breakout forward Peyton Watson is now considered "week-to-week" with a hamstring injury, according to David Adelman. If he isn't able to go come playoff time, it will be a big defensive hole in the Nuggets' rotation.
The same goes for the Boston Celtics. After their big success in 2024, last year brought a shock. Superstar Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles in the second round against the New York Knicks, instantly ending their title dreams.
Now, the 28-year-old is back and, after ten games, is finding his rhythm again. His "partner in crime," Jaylen Brown, has stepped up in his absence. That’s why the current second seed in the East heads into the postseason as a favorite to reach the Finals.
The next tier
There are also several teams whose obvious flaws mean they don’t have the same chances as the four mentioned above.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are definitely among them. After trading for James Harden, Dennis Schroder, and Keon Ellis, the Ohio team’s betting odds shot up. But the actual results have been more mixed than expected. That’s also due to the months-long absence of Jarrett Allen, who is a huge help to his teammates, especially on defense.
With their center back, the Cavs shouldn't be underestimated.
The same goes for two other teams in the East. The Detroit Pistons led their conference for most of the season. Then came the bad news: leader Cade Cunningham will be sidelined for a long time with a collapsed lung.
In the postseason, it will be crucial for their three-point shooters to step up, so that a hopefully healthy Cunningham has enough space to run the offense. If they can consistently put points on the board, their defense has the potential to carry them deep into the playoffs.
However, it’s the opposite for the New York Knicks. Dynamic point guard Jalen Brunson and company are one of the league’s best offensive teams. But in the postseason, the defensive weaknesses of Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns could lead to a defensive collapse.
Both stars are prone to mistakes on defense, and in a long series, opponents could ruthlessly exploit this and put the Knicks in tough situations.
There are also plenty of question marks about the Los Angeles Lakers' defensive capabilities. Too often, the team led by Luka Doncic and LeBron James hasn’t lived up to its potential. Injuries to both, as well as a longer absence for Austin Reaves, have also played a role. Recently, though, the Lakers managed to win 13 of 14 games. But on the night before Good Friday, they suffered a heavy 139-93 defeat against OKC.
Doncic, who left the game after suffering a hamstring injury, was officially ruled out for the rest of the regular season with his availability for the playoffs in question (more details here).
Underdogs – Nothing is impossible
Experience shows that, because of the long best-of-seven series, it’s very tough for underdogs to make a deep playoff run. Still, a lot depends on the specific matchups. That’s why the success of the following teams will depend heavily on their opponents or, in the case of the Minnesota Timberwolves, on whether they can flip the famous switch.
Anthony Edwards and his team have impressed all season with big wins, but have also lost plenty of games to clearly weaker opponents. If they can consistently play to their potential when it matters, the Timberwolves have already shown in past playoffs that they can beat anyone.
After the trade for Kevin Durant, many fans dreamed of a more dominant regular season. But early injuries to Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams have seriously weakened the roster. Without their point guard, the Texans lack players to organize the offense, and Adams’ absence has also hurt their dominance on the offensive glass.
Reed Sheppard has recently shown promise at guard, but in the tough Western Conference playoffs, things could get tight quickly for Houston.
In the East, a Finals appearance by any team other than Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, or New York would be a major surprise. Still, a few teams could make some noise.
The Philadelphia 76ers dreamed of a title after adding veteran Paul George. Nearly two years later, the trio of George, Joel Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey has barely played together. There have been moments this season when the team looked truly convincing, but Embiid and George’s injury history makes a title run seem unlikely.
Since the turn of the year, few teams in the East have been better than the Atlanta Hawks and the Charlotte Hornets. These two Southeast Division teams have little playoff experience, but could still cause problems for some opponents. Charlotte recently beat New York convincingly on the road.
If these teams aren’t taken seriously in the first round, an early upset could be in the cards.
The Outliers
The Orlando Magic and Miami Heat were the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference to clinch a Play-In spot. They'll both have the tallest mountain to climb if they want to overcome the likes of Detroit, New York, and Boston.
With Orlando's star Franz Wagner still dealing with ankle issues and the Heat currently 2-8 in their last 10 games, they're long shots for a reason. However, the thing the Heat at least have going for them is they're the second-best scoring team in the league.
Over in the West, the Portland Trailblazers and Phoenix Suns might be seen as the outliers when they could be overlooked more than anything. Portland is currently 8-2 in their last 10 games and are one of five playoff teams in the West currently on a win streak.
Both of them have a 27-21 record against Western Conference opponents this season, which is better than the Clippers, Warriors, and Rockets. Keep a close eye on both of them heading into this year's playoffs.