Brisbane v Geelong (Friday, 7:40pm AEST)
There were only two clubs that defeated Geelong twice this year and the Cats could potentially meet them both in the finals.
One of them is qualifying finals opponents Brisbane, who triumphed by nine points at The Gabba in Round 3 and by 41 at GMHBA Stadium in Round 15.
Brisbane have had the lions’ share of shaky moments in 2025 but have operated at their best with their backs against the wall and it’s worth remembering they lost two of their last three home and away matches last year and picked themselves up off the canvas with an 11-goal second half in the semi-final against GWS and then a nine-goal second half in the prelim victory over Geelong.
As a result they’re on a three-game winning streak against the Cats, a five-game winning streak at the MCG and are still rated as underdogs for this match despite regaining the services of Lachie Neale, who was instrumental in last year’s preliminary final win with 31 touches and 12 clearances.
Brisbane covered the pre-game line in each of their last 15 games as outsiders, five of which were this year, whilst Chris Fagan's men also have a 4-1 winning record as underdogs in 2025 so we’ll go one step further and back them to head straight to the prelims.
Cameron Rayner is on an outstanding eight-game streak for kicking 2+ goals in away games and has had a strong finish to his season, kicking 2+ in four of his last five matches anywhere.
Match prediction: Brisbane to win
Player prediction: Cameron Rayner 2+ goals
GWS v Hawthorn (Saturday, 3:15pm AEST)
The Giants will be playing just their second home final of the 2020s at ENGIE Stadium and finally have the opportunity to exorcise the demons of last year’s aforementioned semi-final against Brisbane, when they lost the almost unlosable.
Hawthorn won by 12 points the last time these teams met, one of their three wins from ten games against top-eight finishers, but that victory was in Tasmania during what is now the seventh of their ten consecutive wins in Launceston.
It’s the complete opposite up in western Sydney where the Hawks have a stunning 0-8 record, and more recently they bring a bit of shaky form into the finals having lost three of their last four games against fellow finalists, whilst their win rate as an away underdog this year is just 25% - in line with the league average of 24%.
GWS have recalled or retained several experienced campaigners who should be able to help the side avoid another collapse, such as in last year’s semi or this year’s loss to Hawthorn in Tassie, whilst a home crowd will be driving them forward against a team with a 4-19 away record under current coach Sam Mitchell.
One of those is captain Toby Greene, who in his last eight appearances has booted multiple goals seven times at a goalkicking accuracy of 63%. That’s why he’s always a popular 2+ goal pick and Bet365 has particularly excellent odds for him this week.
Match prediction: GWS to win
Player prediction: Toby Greene 2+ goals
Fremantle v Gold Coast (Saturday, 7:35pm AEST)
The final match of the round sees Gold Coast Suns make their long awaited finals debut, and inaugural draft pick David Swallow shed the unwanted record of most career games (247) without a single final and hand it back to the late Trevor Barker.
Fremantle brings to the table an excellent run of 12 wins from their last 14 matches and an 8-3 home record at Optus Stadium this year, losing only to top-four sides Collingwood and Brisbane as well as Sydney during their slow start to the season.
That 14-game run includes a clutch win over the Suns on the Gold Coast, after which Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir attributed the victory to a mid-season change of attitude from the playing squad.
They have since been playing like genuine finalists, as have their opponents throughout much to be fair, but recent losses to the Giants and Power must have hurt.
Three-quarters of the Dockers’ 16 wins this season fell into the 1-39 point bracket, as did six of the Suns’ eight losses, so if you think the awe of Gold Coast’s finals debut could be overwhelming, you could extract some extra value by backing Fremantle with a 1-39 point margin.
Patrick Voss is another favourite selection with punters in the goals markets after five bags of 3+ goals in his last six games. The Suns boast the fifth-best defensive record of the season and rain has been forecasted for Saturday, so you can still get a good price to take the conservative option of 2+ goals.
Match prediction: Fremantle by 1-39 points
Player prediction: Patrick Voss 2+ goals