Hawthorn v North Melbourne (Saturday, 4:15pm AEST)
Hawthorn might be keen on scheduling even more games in Launceston in future years based on the way they’ve been able to turn it into an interstate fortress in the last few years.
The Hawks won nine of their last ten matches at UTAS Stadium following that bizarre 47-44 win against Adelaide and, not only that, they covered the pre-match handicap in all ten games!
They’ve been very reliable favourites across the year with a 7-2 record and a 64% success rate at covering the line - the equal third-best in the league as of the start of this round.
Considering the general disparity between the sides over the last five years, it comes as no surprise that Hawthorn also hold a six-game winning streak against North Melbourne, with the last three all coming by margins greater than the 31.5 point line.
Whilst North Melbourne will be boosted by last week’s victory - which probably said more about Carlton than it did about the Roos - their last pair of back-to-back wins came in the first two rounds of 2023, and they’re yet to beat a top-eight side this year.
Mabior Chol is often a popular pick with punters in the goals markets having cleared 2+ goals in six of his nine winning appearances in 2025, so he’s expected to be a positive contributor to what should be another Hawthorn win.
Match prediction: Hawthorn -31.5 points
Player prediction: Mabior Chol 2+ goals
Collingwood v West Coast (Saturday, 7:35pm AEST)
First takes on 18th and the Eagles will be hoping to avoid a repeat of last year’s corresponding matchup when they were pumped at the MCG by the tune of 66 points.
The bookies are challenging Collingwood to cover a -59.5 point line, which they have done only once since last meeting West Coast in Round 9 last year.
They came close on a couple of occasions, beating Brisbane and Hawthorn by 52 and 51 points respectively, which is why we’ll be choosing to take an alternate line at a shorter price.
West Coast have sadly become synonymous with enormous losses in the last few years but those results have mostly dried up of late, with just one of their last nine matches seeing them lose by at least 60 points (66 v Adelaide).
They fought hard to come back from a slow start against Carlton and, having had a bye week to recuperate physically, should be fresh to put up a good fight against the ladder leaders, so we’ll take the -55.5 point line to buy a few points of insurance.
Dan McStay kicked two goals in both appearances since returning from injury, and with Collingwood likely to rack up a big score, we’ll also back him to do so a third time.
Match prediction: Collingwood -55.5 points
Player prediction: Daniel McStay 2+ goals
Fremantle v St Kilda (Sunday, 5:10pm AEST)
How quickly things can change in six weeks…
Fremantle scored an embarrassing 33 points against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, and when Collingwood ruthlessly kicked 15.7 against them the following week, head coach Justin Longmuir admitted their confidence was shot.
The 44-year-old former Docker has been able to instrument a dramatic change in their attitude and belief and has attributed that to the five consecutive wins they have picked up since last facing the Saints, who on the other hand have lost five of their last six games - including against lowly Carlton and West Coast.
The Dockers are 5-0 as home favourites after showing some swagger against Essendon last Thursday, are on a ten-day backup, and should be far too good for a struggling opposition.
Caleb Serong is the favourite with most sites to be Fremantle’s leading disposal-getter, but on our friends at Bet365 you could get the same price for both he or Andrew Brayshaw to record 30+ disposals at 1.87.
Having seen as little as 1.50 available elsewhere for Serong, who averages an outstanding 33 disposals per game when the Dockers win, Bet365 is the place to go.
Match prediction: Fremantle -22.5 points
Player prediction: Caleb Serong 30+ disposals