St Kilda v Hawthorn (Saturday 7:40pm AEST)
Hawthorn have an 8-2 record as a pre-match favourite following last week’s ruthless demolition of North Melbourne and we’re expecting that to move to 9-2 under the roof on Saturday night, against an opposition that has defeated them in six of the last eight H2Hs.
The Hawks are this time five wins ahead of St Kilda and have had some very strong wins against clubs out of finals contention such as North Melbourne (85 points), Melbourne (35), Richmond (65) and West Coast (50) going back to late April.
St Kilda lost six of their last seven matches, many of which were against sides outside the top-eight, and now have one of the highest counts (eight) of 16+ point losses in the competition.
The visitors share the league’s second-best record with Geelong when it comes to covering the main line (10-5; 67%), and the way the Saints have been struggling lately, a handicap of 18.5 points seems well out of whack.
There’s also some value to be found in Hawthorn forward Jack Ginnivan returning a 2+ goal haul as he has cleared that threshold in six of his last nine appearances - so on medium-term form, any price better than even money looks to be ‘overs’.
Match prediction: Hawthorn -18.5 points
Player prediction: Jack Ginnivan 2+ goals
Sydney v Fremantle (Sunday 1:10pm AEST)
Sydney and Fremantle have both been involved in some terribly ugly and low scoring scraps this year but we feel that the bookies have been a little too conservative when setting the points total for this early afternoon clash.
The Swans and Dockers are 15th (162.8) and 16th (161.5) respectively for total points per game in 2025 but those two averages are well ahead of the 157.5 point mark set for this game at the SCG.
The wet weather that pounded much of New South Wales during the week is set to have subsided by the start of this match, so weather shouldn’t be dragging down the total that has seen six of its seven matches this year produce at least 160 total points.
A low scoring match is to be rightfully be expected, but with Fremantle’s scoring output improving during their six-game winning streak, this handicap looks too low.
Both teams are below the league average for total disposals per game this year and doing better than the league average for disposals against, so punters need to be a little cautious when playing the disposals markets in this game.
But Fremantle’s Jordan Clark is on a four-game run of 25+ possessions and so we’ll be hoping he can extend that to five, with Bet365 offering the best price at time of writing for him to do so.
Match prediction: Over 157.5 total points
Player prediction: Jordan Clark 25+ disposals
Adelaide v Melbourne (Sunday 3:15pm AEST)
Rounding out what is expected to be a comfortable weekend for the favourites is an Adelaide Oval meeting where Melbourne, currently on a four-game losing streak, are not rated by many as a genuine chance of picking up a fifth consecutive victory over Adelaide.
Adelaide have been amongst the most reliable clubs for favourite backers in 2025, winning ten of their 11 games as favourites and losing all four as the underdogs.
Similarly to how we’ll be following Hawthorn’s trend of covering the line more often than not, we’re expecting Adelaide to become the first club of the 2025 season to cover it for a 12th time.
They’re on a six-game streak when it comes to covering the line in day games, but perhaps more importantly Melbourne have already lost by 25+ points to Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Hawthorn in recent weeks, so it’s hard to make a case for them away to a Crows outfit with a 7-1 record at Adelaide Oval this season.
Someone else who has an excellent record at the Adelaide Oval is Demons forward Bayley Fritsch, with 29 goals from 15 games there including 2+ goal hauls in each of his last six. Getting better than even money on that basis is too good to pass up.
Match prediction: Adelaide -24.5 points
Player prediction: Bayley Fritsch to kick 2+ goals