Sydney and Port Adelaide continue to hold on for dear life after picking up some handy wins in recent weeks, but both appear to be running out of time with most of the teams above them continuing to add points regularly.
The Western Bulldogs are threatening to fall away from the eight alongside those below them after once again failing to defeat a top-eight club, and that chronic inability is inspiring one of our six predictions for Round 19 of the 2025 AFL season.
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs (Friday, 7:40pm AEST)
Defending premiers Brisbane remain second-favourites in the Premiership market having appeared to put their mid-season stumble behind them with three straight wins, knocking out Carlton and potentially even Port Adelaide in the last three weeks.
They’re only 11.5 point favourites against Western Bulldogs perhaps because they had to overcome a mid-game deficit of nearly 40 points at Norwood Oval when these teams met during the 2025 Gather Round.
Whilst the Bulldogs’ recent record reads four wins from five games on paper, that period lacks a significant scalp. Head coach Luke Beveridge has taken aim at those suggesting his side needs to beat a top-eight side to be considered a legitimate contender, but the numbers are startling.
They’re now 1-8 against the current top half of the competition after being unable to get past Adelaide last week with a competitive effort, which is why we’re expecting Brisbane to come out on top at The Gabba. The Lions won each of their last 11 first halves, so we should be able to squeeze some extra juice out of their win price by taking them to lead at the end of both halves.
But if you disagree - and perhaps even if you don’t - there’s potential value to be found in Bulldogs sharpshooter Aaron Naughton recording 3+ goals.
He has booted at least three in four of his five matches since Sam Darcy’s return, demonstrating that he hasn’t taken a step backwards since being shifted from his makeshift full forward position back to centre half forward.
Match prediction: Brisbane HT/FT double
Player prediction: Aaron Naughton 3+ goals
Geelong v St Kilda (Sunday, 1:10pm AEST)
Sunday’s triple-header begins in Geelong, which is perhaps St Kilda’s greatest bogey venue of all.
One has to go back to 1999 - yes, 1999 - to find the last time the Saints won for points at GMHBA Stadium. There have been 12 unsuccessful visits since then, the most recent of which was in early 2024 (L 76-68), and there were some pretty hefty losing margins along the way.
They were admirable in defeat to the Swans last week despite their season being well and truly over, demonstrating that there’s some fight left in them yet.
Our big interest is in the total points market because Geelong and St Kilda are third and fourth respectively for most total points per game (176.9 and 172.4 respectively), both of which are above the 169.5 point market set for this clash.
That mark was also cleared in the majority of games to be played in Geelong this year such as Geelong’s big wins over Richmond (124-52) and Fremantle (147-69) and both teams were involved in high scoring matches last week.
Shannon Neale is second-favourite behind Jeremy Cameron to kick multiple goals here after 13 goals in his last four outings, and for that you can get odds as little as 1.40 to as generous as 1.70 on Ladbrokes for your investment.
Match prediction: Over 169.5 total points
Player prediction: Shannon Neale 2+ goals
Adelaide v Gold Coast (Sunday, 4:40pm AEST)
On the other hand, we think that the bookies have aimed a little too high when they forecasted an over/under mark of 175.5 for Adelaide and Gold Coast, who are both behind the Cats and Saints for total points per game with 171.2 (5th) and 170.8 (6th).
We’re not ignoring the fact that ten Gold Coast matches this season have cleared 176+ total points, but many of them were in big victories against lower-ranked clubs where their forwards were allowed too much freedom - such as when they scored 141 points against North, 117 against Sydney, 115 against Essendon, 136 against West Coast or 120 against Melbourne.
This time they’re up against the second-best defence in the competition and could therefore see their scoring prowess dragged down, whilst in return they have the defensive capability to challenge Adelaide’s star-studded forward 50.
Just two of the Gold Coast’s last seven games at the Adelaide Oval went beyond 175.5 total points, and whilst this game is likely to come close to nudging it, the threshold is just a bit too high for what the averages and the trends are pointing towards.
Take caution with backing any Suns players in disposals markets knowing that Adelaide as a side average the fewest disposals against of all 18 clubs, so instead we’ve turned to Crows captain Jordan Dawson to reach 25+ for a fourth straight week and a tenth time in 2025, one of which includes a haul of 31 in the previous head-to-head.
Match prediction: Under 175.5 total points
Player prediction: Jordan Dawson 25+ disposals