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Economics expert Badenhausen believes Houston and Atlanta 'make sense' for NHL expansion teams

The Houston skyline
The Houston skylineGavin Hellier / Robert Harding Heritage / robertharding via AFP

Sportico sports and economics reporter Kurt Badenhausen thinks the NHL could be heading to Houston or Atlanta if the league looks for new expansion teams.

Sportico value North American sports organisations, their assets and teams, to rank them - something Badenhausen has been doing since 1994. 

The big four leagues across the continent - the NHL, the NFL, MLB and the NBA - are ranked separately at the beginning of each season and it has become incredibly successful, with fans waiting to see how their team are progressing. 

It also allows owners to get an accurate valuation of what they own if they are willing to sell.

Speaking to Livesport Daily in an exclusive interview, Badenhausen reveals that a lot has changed in his business from the 1990s.

He said: "Back then, everything was done by phone, searching through newspaper clippings. It was a lot, a lot of phone calls. We sent people faxes with questions and they faxed us back with answers.

"That's something we take for granted again today - everything is available with a few clicks. You can look up Apple's annual reports for 25 years. So it's a very different time. The last change, when we think about it today, is related to much greater interest in this topic and the opening of sports leagues to investment from private capital and institutional investors. We have a whole new group of people who are looking at these assets and thinking about them as investments.

"Many more people are aware of these teams and their finances. We hope that we are connecting with the right people and getting better financial data. But these businesses are also much more complex today than they were in 1994, when you only had a little bit of ticket revenue, a television contract, and some money from beer sales."

More fans are interested in their team's revenues, and that is because a larger pot of money generally leads to success. Alongside this, a stable bank balance means supporters can be safe in the knowledge that their organisation aren't going anywhere.

In the NHL, franchises that own plenty of real estate and media interests top the list of Sportico.

Badenhausen explained: "Several franchises benefit significantly from the real estate and related businesses category. The Toronto Maple Leafs have both real estate and media interests. They top our list with a value of $4.25 billion. 

Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the most valuable franchises in North America
Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the most valuable franchises in North AmericaChris Tanouye / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

"It's a very complex structure because the Maple Leafs are part of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE), which is a commercial real estate company. Under that umbrella are the NBA's Toronto Raptors and Major League Soccer's Toronto FC. Rogers Communications is the largest shareholder in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment and also the NHL's media partner in Canada."

Another franchise that intrigues the reporter is the Edmonton Oilers.

He added: "The Oilers are sixth on our list with a value of $2.76 billion. A massive, multi-billion-dollar development project is underway around their arena. Currently, it is a $3 billion development. However, we only include very specific parts of this development in our valuation, those that are directly adjacent to the arena and that are almost certain to sell if the Edmonton Oilers were to go on sale.

"We do not include the office building and hotel that are part of this multi-acre, multi-billion dollar project in our valuation. The reason is that the scope of this project is already greater than the value of the hockey team itself."

Houston and Atlanta for the NHL?

Expansion talks are always rife across North America. Recently, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred revealed that the league are looking into bringing two new teams, with a plethora of cities interested in the prospect.

At 32 teams, the NHL has the most franchises in their league, along with the NFL, and it feels unlikely that it would increase to 33 or 34.

But, if they were to expand, Badenhausen feels they would head down south to Georgia and Texas.

Speaking about how much someone or some conglomerate would need to buy in, he mused: "Considering that the average value is $2.1 billion, it makes sense that someone would pay $2 billion to enter a league where there are currently no expansion talks underway - they are just listening to interested parties who come to them on their own. And at least half a dozen cities have expressed interest.

"If you look at major markets in the United States, such as Atlanta and Houston, they don't have an NHL franchise at the moment. Yet these are among the eight largest markets in North America.

"Ten years ago, the idea of expanding by two more franchises in the southern United States would have been crazy, because teams in Florida and the Southeast/Southwest were struggling. But if you look at the current situation in the NHL, these franchises are absolutely thriving on and off the ice. They have built very strong fan bases.

"The Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are teams that remain in playoff contention at the end of the season. So I think two billion in a big market like Houston and Atlanta makes sense. When you consider that we are now in 2025 and we are talking about the start of an expansion team, maybe in 2029, or at best 2028, then the price of $2 billion for a franchise in Houston in 2029 is more than fair. Most other franchises in major markets are worth $2 billion plus in the NHL. We still have some teams. If we look at Columbus, which is in 32nd place, we estimate it at $1.3 billion. But yes, I think two billion is definitely fair for the markets under consideration."

Watch the full interview with Badenhausen below.

Livesport Daily
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