Both teams have been deserving of their place in the final, having finished in the top-two with nine victories, winning their final games to make Qualifier 1 with a NRR difference of just 0.071.
RCB dismantled PBKS in the first playoff, but the Kings stormed into the final with an emphatic chase of Mumbai’s 200+ run score led by their captain Shreyas Iyer. It’s RCB vs PBKS, round 4 this season.
Both captains have already sparred once in a final this season. Rajat Patidar’s 81* was in vain as his Madhya Pradesh lost to Iyer’s Mumbai in the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy final. There’s a lot more at stake now. This is only PBKS’ second final in history; whilst they too are trophyless, they do not have the baggage of past failures at the final stage. This is RCB’s fourth final, and tenth play-offs appearance.
They will need to shut that noise out. Plenty has been made about Virat Kohli winning the IPL in his 18th season. A constant IPL narrative has been about RCB’s failure to lift the trophy. Will that end on Tuesday? Meanwhile, Shreyas Iyer has become the first captain to take three different teams to the final, and could be the first to win it with different teams in back-to-back years.
It’s difficult to call the winner, but this is a fitting end to the tournament. The neutral will hope for a final more like 2023, and less than 2024.
Why Bengaluru can win
Despite injuries, RCB have benefitted from offering role clarity to all players this season. Phil Salt and Virat Kohli go hard at bowlers in the powerplay, knowing they bat all the way to eight. This is by far the strongest team in their history. They have had ten different half-centurions this season, with all ten bowlers having taken at least one wicket. On top of that, they have had nine different ‘Player of the Match’ winners.
How Salt deals with Arshdeep Singh, and Kohli with Kyle Jamieson, will set the tone for the batting. RCB will hope captain Patidar contributes in the final, as he looks in better nick now after struggling with a hand injury for the second half of the tournament.
If they can get a good start, they will be set for a good total. The other key phase will be their powerplay bowling, with the RCB pacers excelling all tournament. They will need early wickets once again to exert pressure on a deep batting line-up.
They will hope that Tim David has recovered sufficiently from a hamstring injury sustained against SRH, to take the place of Livingstone. The Englishman has struggled for form this season. Aside from that, the playing 12 is set in stone. RCB have had a longer break to travel, rest and recover from playing LSG and PBKS in a three day span. Whether that is an advantage will be down to them.
Why Punjab can win
PBKS look like they have put the failure of Qualifier 1 well behind them. A lot of that is down to Shreyas Iyer. Criticism over his 26 crore price-tag has long disappeared, and his unbeaten 87* in Qualifier 2 was one of the best playoff innings witnessed. He was well supported by Nehal Wadhera.
The middle order has contributed in games where the openers have fallen early. With Azmatullah Omarzai at eight, and Jamieson at ten, they will back themselves to chase any score down.
Though the RCB bowling has had the measure of the PBKS batters this season, one would expect them to dial down on early aggression, especially against Josh Hazlewood. Him vs Iyer could determine the result on its own. The other battle will be the middle order vs Suyash Sharma: the leg-spinner has gotten Stoinis out twice and they have looked clueless against his wrong’un.
They might consider bringing back Harpreet Brar in place of Yuzvendra Chahal, though the leg-spinner was a big-money purchase and big-game player. He might go for runs, but he offers the aggressive option of going for wickets. Arshdeep has looked off-colour in the two games, but the PBKS pacers did well overall against MI. If conditions are favourable, they could hold their own.
Venue and conditions
In eight games in Ahmedabad, the side batting first has scored 200+ in seven games. The outlier was a score of 196. The side batting first has won six games. The last two group games saw mammoth scores of 235 and 230.
Qualifier 2 was no doubt influenced by rain, making batting easier in the second innings. The final will be dependent on the weather, and there might be some rain. That’ll make the toss critical to either side. PBKS in particular are suited to chasing more than batting first,
The last three finals have been won by the chasing side. RCB have lost all three IPL finals chasing. At least one streak will be broken.
Match stats
• Six of the eight IPL 2025 games in Ahmedabad were won batting first - they all had first innings scores of between 196 and 243 runs
• The average run rate of 9.71rpo in Ahmedabad this season is the second-fastest of all venues to have hosted more than two games
• RCB had the highest opening partnership of a match nine times, PBKS only five.
• These are the two fastest scoring teams during the death overs - PBKS 12.37rpo and RCB 11.76rpo
• Shreyas Iyer in Ahmedabad: 58* (24) for KKR v SRH 2024, 97* (42) for PBKS v GT 2025, 87* (41) for PBKS v MI 2025
• Kohli and Salt have the joint-most 50+ run partnerships (six, alongside Tilak Varma and Suryakumar Yadav) of IPL 2025
• Josh Hazlewood vs Shreyas Iyer in T20s: 11 runs off 22 runs, four dismissals.