Both sides enter the Eliminator in a run of poor form. Gujarat Titans have lost their last two games, comfortably, to Lucknow and Chennai. Mumbai Indians lost their third-last game (against GT) in a thriller, and then lost to Punjab in their last game. Both teams have blown the chance to make the top two on their own.
Mumbai’s six-game unbeaten run saw them surge to the playoffs, but two losses in their last three games left them in the Eliminator. Importantly, they have not beaten GT (twice), Punjab or RCB this season. Their success has come from confidently dispatching the weaker sides this season.
Gujarat are missing Jos Buttler now, to compound their other woes. His loss is much more damaging than Ryan Rickelton and Will Jacks combined. Whether they can bounce back from two losses against a side with a great play-off record remains to be seen.
Only one side has won the IPL from the Eliminator - SRH in 2016 - and only one other has made the final - KKR in 2021 - so both teams have a long journey ahead.
Why Gujarat can win
Jos Buttler’s departure is an enormous blow to the side. GT were built on a dominant top-three, and they have been producing bulk runs with replicable consistency. With consecutive losses now, it is a bad time to lose the Englishman. Kusal Mendis will take his place - an explosive batter on his day - but someone with no IPL experience. A middle-order of Sherfane Rutherford, Shahrukh Khan and Rahul Tewatia will find it tough in case of early wickets. Rashid Khan bats one spot too high at this team, at seven.
But the bigger concern is their bowling. They have conceded 664 runs in three games since the re-start. Out of the eight bowlers used, only Prasidh Krishna has gone at under ten runs an over (8.83). He has also taken more wickets than all other pacers combined. Kagiso Rabada is unavailable for the playoffs, though he - and Gerald Coetzee - have been expensive. Equally concerning is that Mohammed Siraj has gone off the boil. Rashid Khan is getting hit by nearly every player.
GT need to find a way of rebalancing their side - perhaps playing Washington Sundar - but there are trade-offs to every choice. Their best hopes lie on Sai Sudharsan and Shubman Gill. On the basis of this season, they could do it too.
Why Mumbai can win
MI have a plethora of title-winning and experienced players. They aren’t firing at full capacity at the moment. Suryakumar Yadav has made history by scoring 25+ runs in each of his 14 innings, but he isn’t receiving enough support from the top-order. Rohit Sharma’s two best innings this season came against chases against weaker sides; though consistency has never been his forte in the IPL. Tilak Varma is having a down year. That puts pressure on the overseas imports.
However, Ryan Rickelton and Will Jacks are unavailable for the playoffs. In their place comes Jonny Bairstow and Charith Asalanka. The Englishman has IPL experience, including a hundred last year, and has been playing County Cricket for Yorkshire. He is a wildcard player. The Sri Lankan has yet to play in the IPL, and his overall T20 record is patchy. They will also be losing out on Jacks as an off-spin option.
The bowling is centred around Jasprit Bumrah, who could win a game on his own. That itself makes MI a side to fear in a knockout. The side have utilised six to seven bowlers every game, which sometimes leads to haphazard bowling changes. They may consider playing Karn Sharma in place of Ashwani Kumar. Both Krunal Pandya and Harpreet Brar did well in the last game at Mullanpur, making Mitchell Santner crucial.
Venue and conditions
Mullanpur has hosted four games this season. The first two saw 200+ scores in the first innings be defended. The third was the memorable low-scorer between KKR and PBKS. The fourth saw RCB chase down 158 with seven balls to spare.
They have not hosted a game since 20th April, so the nature of the pitch remains to be seen. It would be surprising if it was a low-scoring one. The weather should be good.
Match stats
• GT has a 5-2 record over MI.
• Shubman Gill and Sai Sudharsan have scored 909 runs in 14 innings this season, averaging 69.9. They are 31 short of breaking the all-time season record for a partnership - 939 runs - jointly-held by Virat Kohli with FAF du Plessis and Virat Kohli.
• Mohammed Siraj has taken just two powerplay wickets in the last nine games, striking at 69 with an economy of 9.52.
• Rashid Khan has taken just nine wickets in 14 games this season, averaging 53.66 with an economy of 9.47. This is his worst season in nine years.
• Jonny Bairstow vs left-arm pace in T20s since 2024: 117 runs off 64 balls, two dismissals.
• Rohit Sharma has scored 316 runs in IPL playoffs in 21 innings, averaging 15.8 with a strike-rate of 109.
• Naman Dhir has struck at 180.70 this season, scoring 206 runs off 114 balls from lower down the order. That has included 17 fours and 12 sixes. He has also taken 12 catches, making him an invaluable team player.
• Deepak Chahar and Trent Boult have eight wickets each in the powerplay this season, making them the third and fourth best in this phase (behind Khaleel Ahmed and Mohammed Siraj).