Match News and Current Form
England’s automatic qualification for the 2027 ODI World Cup as a top-nine nation is not yet confirmed but is not existentially under threat despite them languishing at eighth in the ICC’s rankings. That’s because they swept the West Indies 3-0 on home soil in May and opened up a gap to the Windies in ninth place, subsequently registering their first bilateral ODI series win in five attempts.
After they were made to pay in both late 2023 (World Cup) and January 2025 (Champions Trophy) for casting bilateral ODIs aside as an afterthought, England appear to be taking a much more thorough approach to 2027 and have chosen a very strong squad for this series despite its proximity to the Hundred. Regular white ball captain Harry Brook will turn out three just days after an unfortunate exit from the Hundred and he’s the fifth-youngest of a 15-man squad that includes seven players in their thirties.
South Africa not long ago visited the UK to win the World Test Championship against Australia and will be leaning into the recent experience of those players - such as Temba Bavuma, Aiden Markram, Ryan Rickelton, Tristan Stubbs and Kagiso Rabada - to drive them to what would be a third consecutive away bilateral series in this format.
They were recently successful in both Ireland and Australia, taking unassailable 2-0 leads before signing off early and submitting themselves to some hefty defeats in the dead rubber. Don’t be surprised to see them get off to a strong start here with a batting lineup stacked with boundary hitters such as Dewald Brevis, Matthew Breetzke and Lhuan-dre Pretorius in addition to the aforementioned core players.
Head-to-Head History
England won only one of their last six ODI series against South Africa (D3, L2), last doing so in 2017. South Africa’s last ODI tour of England was drawn 1-1 with the series decider disappointingly washed out in Leeds, the host city of this match.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Two-thirds of first innings scores of 270+ runs in Leeds were winning ones, whilst 71% of scores under 270 were successfully chased.
Joe Root cleared 50+ runs in four of his six ODIs at Headingley.
South Africa have never won an ODI at Headingley from five attempts (L4, NR1).
Seven of England’s last ten opening partnerships in home ODIs were worth 48+ runs.
Key Players to Watch
Sonny Baker is an exciting debutant confirmed by England management on Monday after impressing for Hampshire and the Manchester Originals as well as England Lions with his fast pace bowling. At List A level he averages almost two wickets per game, so expect him to be in the thick of the action alongside fellow quicks Jofra Archer and Brydon Carse.
Dewald Brevis was very much ‘feast or famine’ in the recent tour of Australia, scattering three single digits amongst a 125*, a 53 and a 49. He plays ODIs and T20Is in a very similar manner and can be devastating when he gets going.
Betting Analysis
Jos Buttler is in stellar form with three half-centuries and a 46 in his last six Hundred appearances, so back him to carry it forward and score 30+ runs.