Match News and Current Form
It took South Africa seven months to begin their first T20I of the calendar year, but their enviable depth was on display earlier this week when they maintained control of their series opener against Zimbabwe despite occasional minor setbacks such as stumbling to 38 for 3 with the bat.
That win maintained their unbeaten record against the Chevrons in this format and now means they’ve played seven consecutive T20Is on African soil, winning four of them and losing three times to India. This is expected to be much more difficult, though, with their opponents bringing a wealth of experience to Zimbabwe even despite some notable absences.
New Zealand are ending a run of eight consecutive home T20Is that were played during their home season and resulted in resounding series wins against both Sri Lanka (2-1) and Pakistan (4-1). They’re out to make amends for a very disappointing 2024 T20 World Cup in which they lost to both Afghanistan and West Indies and thus didn’t progress as far as many had expected.
It’s also the debut for head coach Rob Walter, the Johannesburg-born 49-year-old who succeeded Gary Stead after a two-year stint in charge of South Africa from 2023 to 2025. He should bring plenty of inside knowledge to this matchup.
Head-to-Head History
Somehow, these two sides haven’t met in a T20I in more than eight years with New Zealand pair Mitchell Santner and Glenn Phillips the only surviving members of both teams.
South Africa dominate the H2H history 11-4 but it carries no weight given the timespan of games (2005-17).
Hot Stats and Streaks
• Four of the last five completed T20Is in Harare were won chasing
• 16% of targets of 165+ runs in Harare T20Is are chased down, whilst 61% of those under 165 are chased
• Five of New Zealand’s last six opening partnerships were worth 50+ runs
• Five of South Africa’s last seven couldn’t get to double digits
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Rubin Hermann is a man who holds himself to lofty standards and, despite scoring 45 on international debut in a comfortable victory, was filthy with himself for not seeing out the run chase through to the end. He appears to be the sort always hungry for more, so expect even bigger things from him in this tri-series. Adam Milne makes his international return in sharp form after picking 14 wickets in the recent MLC season, taking 2+ wickets on four separate occasions.
South Africa could rotate their bowlers given the 48-hour backup or simply choose to remain unchanged. New Zealand are also missing many big names such as Kane Williamson, Finn Allen, Lockie Ferguson, Kyle Jamieson and Ben Sears for a variety of reasons.
Betting Analysis
South Africa have the advantage of having already played once at the Harare Sports Club this week and should be better for the run. Their powerplay and death overs bowling against Zimbabwe was superb. Back South Africa to win at even moneySouth Africa to win at even money.