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New Zealand v Pakistan, Sunday, 12:30am AEDT
The first of the Super 8s matches could be one of the most interesting and tightly contested, and we're leaning towards Pakistan's familiarity with conditions in Sri Lanka to get them home.
New Zealand were humbled by South Africa in their only game in Ahmedabad and comfortably won their three in Chennai against Afghanistan and the two associates, and they assume favouritism in this game thanks to their excellent record of reaching the final four at ICC events as well as their 10-6 head-to-head record against Pakistan since the start of 2024.
Pakistan played their entire group stage in Colombo, the host city of this match, so they already have an advantage over the Kiwis who played three times in Chennai and once in Ahmedabad.
Their bowlers took 35 of a possible 40 wickets throughout the first group stage, and that was without any kind of incision from out-of-form strike bowler Shaheen Shah Afridi, who was eventually dropped.
The R. Premadasa Stadium tends to favour spin and the duo of Usman Tariq and Shadab Khan have worked themselves into some excellent wicket-taking form, claiming ten and five wickets respectively.
Tip: Pakistan to win - 2.10 @ Bet365
Bet explanation: We need Pakistan to simply defeat New Zealand.
Sri Lanka v England, Sunday, 8:30pm AEDT
Host nation Sri Lanka were super impressive throughout the group stage right up until their surprise defeat against Zimbabwe, in which their highest total at this venue since 2018 was not nearly enough.
Their intentional middle overs go-slow was questioned after Zimbabwe bashed their way to 182 in the final over of the run chase, whilst opting for spin in that final over to defend eight runs didn't pay off.
It also exposed the glaring absence of three first-choice bowlers who have been lost to injury - Wanindu Hasaranga, Eshan Malinga and Matheesha Pathirana - with their bowling tactics in the back end of the group stage.
Sri Lanka certainly cannot be discounted at a good price, but one market we identified as potentially favourable is for England top order batter Tom Banton to score over 20.5 runs, as he did in two of the three T20Is against Sri Lanka that immediately predated this World Cup, whilst England's games against Scotland and Italy have helped him rediscover his groove after a very slow start to the tournament.
Tip: Tom Banton over 20.5 runs - 1.83 @ Bet365
Bet explanation: Tom Banton needs to score at least 21 runs against Sri Lanka.
India v South Africa, Monday, 12:30am AEDT
The standout favourites to lift the title meet their nearest challengers meet in white ball cricket for the eighth time in little more than two months following South Africa's December tour of India, in which they lost the ODIs 2-1 and the T20Is 3-1.
India have barely had to get out of second gear in the tournament so far and, whilst this should be their toughest test so far on paper, there's little value to be found in backing them to win this match.
One man we're going to give a second chance to is South African opener Quinton de Kock, who has an over/under mark of 22.5 runs set by cricket betting sites.
South Africa have already played three games at the Narendra Modi Stadium and should therefore be feeling just as familiar as India with the surroundings, which is good news for backing Quinton de Kock as he cleared 20+ runs in all three of his T20 World Cup innings here.
He averages an immense 43 from 19 T20I innings in India, including two half-centuries and a 25 from his four starts in Ahmedabad, whilst his only IPL innings at this venue saw him strike 70 from 41 balls for Lucknow Super Giants in 2023. Back him in for a big score here.
Tip: Quinton de Kock over 22.5 runs - 1.83 @ Bet365
Bet explanation: Quinton de Kock needs to score at least 23 runs against India.
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Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.