Match News and Current Form
England are on a run of nine wins from their last 11 home Test matches, which began with a third Test victory over Australia at Headingley in 2023 that saw them turn a 2-0 series deficit into a 2-2 draw. Helped along by several dropped catches from their opponents, they amassed an outstanding batting average of 55 in the first Test whilst prompting dramatic lower order Indian batting collapses in both innings.
Whilst they have made Headingley their own in recent years, particularly when it comes to history-making run chases, three losses from their five Tests in Birmingham (W2) since India’s last visit shows that Edgbaston is perhaps not as strong a home ground as others.
Now with four losses in their last five Test matches (D1), India are continuing to struggle through a generational change in their Test lineup and are far from finding a settled top or middle order after both Sai Sudharsan and Karun Nair both failed to make significant impacts with the bat.
But even more concerning is that they were able to take just 15 match wickets despite a first innings five-for from Jasprit Bumrah, who had already been committed to missing two of the five Tests through workload management. That would mean they now have to find a way to win at least one Test without him to take out the series.
Head-to-Head History
It’s certainly not yet time for India to panic knowing they were able to draw their two-part 2021/2022 tour of England 2-2, although on that occasion they took a 1-0 lead into the third match. It means that England have a 3-2 lead at home to India in Test matches over the last four years.
In Birmingham, however, England remained unbeaten from eight H2Hs spanning a 55-year period (1967 - 2022) with seven wins and a draw. Five of their seven wins came by margins of an innings or at least seven wickets, including when they chased 378 with seven wickets to spare in 2022.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The last four Birmingham Tests were won by the chasing team.
The last eight Birmingham Tests produced first innings scores of more than 280 runs.
KL Rahul scored 40+ runs in five of his ten innings in England since 2021.
Chris Woakes took 4+ wickets in eight of his last 11 home Tests.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
England have no reason to change their XI and chose not to mess with a winning formula, especially now that Ben Stokes is once again a triple threat. Jofra Archer made his return to the Test squad during the week after getting through a County Championship match unscathed but will be watching an unchanged side pursue a 2-0 series lead.
A first innings century to number three Ollie Pope could give him the confidence he needs to exorcise the demons of a Test average of just 15.29 in Birmingham (seven innings).
India vowed to wait until the last possible moment to decide whether to play Bumrah, in part because they’re considering going with an additional spin option such as Washington Sundar or even Kuldeep Yadav on what assistant coach Ryan ten Doeschate described as a dry and patchy pitch. Nitish Kumar Reddy is also in contention for a call-up and was seen in slips practice as part of a cordon that was missing Yashasvi Jaiswal, who put down three catches in Leeds last week.
Rishabh Pant will have fond memories of this venue having scored 146 and 57 in the 2022 fixture and the swashbuckling wicketkeeper is primed to repeat that after his twin centuries at Headingley, which was his fourth and fifth consecutive 50+ run scores against England in this format.
Betting Analysis
England are in such an enviable groove at the moment, have their captain back as an incisive fifth bowler, and their top seven all had at least one good innings in Headingley to take forth into the next match. The weather appears more than good enough for a result, so England to win seems a safe play, with Rishabh Pant to record a first innings 50+ score also worth consideration.