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NFL Thursday night game picks: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Patriots' RB TreVeyon Henderson running the ball (2025)
Patriots' RB TreVeyon Henderson running the ball (2025)Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Our NFL experts give their picks for Week 11's Thursday night primetime game between the New England Patriots (8-2) and New York Jets (2-7) in this AFC East divisional showdown!

The Patriots are 12.5-point favourites over the Jets - the largest spread of any matchup this week and the only matchup with a spread in double digits. The over-under is set at 42.5.

New England will be rocking their new Rivalries uniforms for the matchup. 

Now, let's get into who our experts picked before we break down the game!

Paul (96-51-1): Patriots 27-7 Jets

New England’s defence still hasn’t allowed a rusher to go for 60 yards all season, therefore basically eliminating the Jets’ sole threat in Breece Hall.

No Garrett Wilson for Justin Fields, who couldn’t even eclipse 55 yards in three of his last four games (granted, he left the game against the Panthers with an injury).

It’s gonna be a ball to see Drake Maye play the Jets. 

Give me Thomas Odukoya’s Patriots!

Eric (92-55-1): Patriots 33-17 Jets

This season has not made a single shred of sense. Shocking moments happen every week - this isn't going to be one of those moments.

The only thing Jets fans have to look forward to on Thursday night is if Aaron Judge takes the American League MVP over Seattle's Cal Raleigh. 

New York's only two wins of the season came off a pair of some of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins, back-to-back as they may be.

Now, they're up against one of the best teams who are on a seven-game win streak and have an MVP candidate spearheading them at QB. 

And the Pats are honouring Rob Gronkowski before the game? Good luck, Jets.

Miguel (90-57-1): Patriots 28-7 Jets

It’s very difficult to imagine the Jets winning at the Patriots’ home ground. New England has finally regained its form this year, while New York is a team in clear decline.

What’s more, the Big Apple team lost what little they had going for them on defence with the departures of Sauce Gardner to the Colts and Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys.

The match should be a walk in the park for the Patriots.

Henri (81-66-1): Patriots 37-10 Jets

I can't imagine anything other than a blowout in this matchup.

Drake Maye is in impressive form and the league's best rushing defense won't allow Breece Hall to make his mark in this game.

In the end, it will be a clear victory for the Pats, who will take another step towards an outstanding season.

Game breakdown

The No. 10 offence and the No. 8 defence taking on the No. 28 offence and No. 19 defence - I bet you knew which team was which without having to say their names, right? 

That's all that needs to be said about this matchup.

Despite the Jets coming off back-to-back wins, it doesn't mean much, given their track record this season - 0-6 against teams with winning records.

The silver lining is that five of those games were decided by seven points or less, with their only blowout coming against the Buffalo Bills (30-10). 

They may have overcome a terrible Browns offence last week, but they're up against a completely different beast this time around.

New England has put up at least 23 points in each of their seven-straight wins, and they've also allowed less than 23 points in all of those same games. 

Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson is coming off his breakout game last week after putting up 150 total yards (147 rushing) and two touchdowns - the Jets have the 26th-ranked run defence. 

QB Drake Maye might not even need to have an MVP-like performance for the second straight week for the Pats to come away with a win. 

He put up an 89.4 passer rating against the Bucs, a team coming off their bye week. It was Maye's worst since Week 1 and they still came away with a 28-23 win over a very good Bucs team. 

That should tell you everything you need to know. 

Wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who was held scoreless through the team's first seven games, has now scored at least one touchdown in the past three games.

New England's entire unit has posted at least one receiver with 100+ in two of the last three games. 

New York's offence centers around running back Breece Hall, who has put up over 100 total yards in five of the team's nine games this season. 

He still put up over 100 yards and a touchdown against the No. 2 defence (No. 10 run defence) in the Browns. So getting him going would give the Jets the only chance they have to win this game, especially with wide receiver Garrett Wilson out with a knee injury. 

Injury reports

LP = limited participant in practice / FP = full participant in practice / DNP = did not participate in practice

For the Jets, Wilson and Azareye'h Thomas (concussion) are both inactive. Linebacker Francisco Mauigoa is active.

The rest are questionable for the Jets: Will McDonald IV (LP), Harrison Phillips (LP), Braiden McGregor (LP), Xavier Newman-Johnson (FP), Khalil Herbert (FP), 

For the Patriots, Kayshon Boutte (WR), Christian Ellis (LB), Austin Hooper (TE), and Rhamondre Stevenson (RB), are all inactive. Linebacker Jack Gibbens is active.

The following are questionable: Joshua Farmer (DNP), Terrell Jennings (LP).

Chances are you’re about to lose.

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