Match News and Current Form
Despite the positive ongoing development of the Japan League One, which is attracting international stars such as Faf de Klerk, Malcolm Marx, Cheslin Kolbe Pablo Matera, Shannon Frizell and Marika Korobeite away from their own domestic competitions, Japan continues to tumble backwards on the international stage and they could be deteriorating even further after being thrashed last weekend by the Maori All Blacks (53-20), who they shared a series 1-1 with in 2024.
Since a sharp drop from winning their 2019 Rugby World Cup pool to missing the knockouts in 2023, Eddie Jones’ side are on a five-game losing streak against T1 sides with margins of at least 28 points on each occasion including against Italy. On top of that there were even humiliating losses to Fiji (41-17) and Georgia (25-23) last year, potentially putting their place in the proposed 2026 Rugby Nations Championship in great peril.
Both teams have been preparing in 30+C degree heat in anticipation of uncomfortably hot and humid conditions for this afternoon game which will test the fitness of a Wales side that are at a rock-bottom 12th place in the World Rugby rankings, just one ahead of Japan, and the fact that just two of the 41 men selected for the British & Irish Lions tour of Australia represent Wales says all you need to know about the current state of Welsh rugby.
The silver lining is that it gives them almost a full complement of players to choose from and interim head coach Matt Sherratt has pivoted in a different direction, recalling several players with international experience who did not partake in their disastrous 2025 Six Nations Championship. They certainly have a lot to prove in the second half of the year.
Head-to-Head History
Wales won 13 of the 14 official meetings between these teams, though the last such one was in 2016.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Japan failed to cover the spread in each of their last five losses to T1 teams.
Ten of Japan’s 13 matches last season exceeded the total points handicap.
Wales conceded the opening try and lost the race to ten points in all five games this year.
The first half was the highest scoring half in four of Wales’ five matches this year.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Outside centre Dylan Riley was by far Japan’s most prolific and reliable try scorer of 2024, crossing the line in six of their last nine internationals of the year. Fullback Blair Murray was one of Wales’ seven individual try scorers of the Six Nations and scored in an outstanding five of his seven competitive games for Scarlets since then.
Wales are missing Tomos Williams and Jac Morgan to the Lions tour whilst Aaron Wainwright and Tommy Reffell have unexpectedly been named on the bench.
Betting Analysis
The pre-match favourite won 11 of Japan’s 13 matches last year after they had a 1-4 record as underdogs, whilst Wales need to take this game much more seriously than previous tour openers with Japan considering the urgent need to defeat anyone.
When combining that and Japan’s awful struggles against T1 countries, Wales should be covering the -10.5 point handicap here.