Match News and Current Form
This match will carry the celebrations of 100 years of international rugby being played at Murrayfield, which hosted its first such spectacle in March 1925. There have been happy times here of late, with Scotland winning five of their last six matches as hosts (L1), but it’s these next three games here against New Zealand, Argentina, and Tonga that carry more significance than your regular Autumn international match. That’s because the Scots (currently ranked eighth) are gunning for a top-six berth in the World Rugby rankings come the end of the month, in order to ensure placement in band one of the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw.
An 85-0 thumping of the USA last week is hardly an indicator of how they’ll do against the All Blacks here, but Scotland have proved much more competitive than usual recently against their Southern Hemisphere foes, winning six of their last 12 home games (L6) against Rugby Championship opposition - which is as many victories as they managed in their 41 such attempts prior (D1, L34). Coach Gregor Townsend has made some bold choices with that record in mind, dropping star players Duhan van der Merwe and Jamie Ritchie from the matchday 23 and opting for Kyle Steyn and Gregor Brown instead, while the side is captained by centre Sione Tuipulotu.
New Zealand held onto their second-place world ranking with a 26-13 win over Ireland in Chicago last week, in a much tougher game than the scoreline suggests. The All Blacks grinded out an eighth win in ten games this year (L2), and got their autumn tour of the Northern Hemisphere off to the best possible start, where the hope is they can go undefeated across all games for the first time since 2017. That endeavour will be tested to the max as these parts of the world have been tricky for New Zealand recently, who have lost five of their last 16 matches against European sides in Europe (W10, D1) which is as many losses as they suffered in their previous 64 such encounters (W56, D2).
Coach Scott Robertson has made minimal changes to his side that did the job against Ireland, making just three changes. Josh Lord and Wallace Sititi come in at lock and flank respectively, while Leicester Fainga’anuku takes up his spot at outside centre. The All Blacks will be captained by Ardie Savea.
Head-to-Head History
The All Blacks have never lost to Scotland in the 32 tests they’ve played before, winning 30 and drawing two of those. The last three tests between the sides were decided by single-digit margins.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The first half was the highest scoring half in six of Scotland’s last seven games.
Four of Scotland’s last six home games finished over the main total points handicap.
New Zealand won six of their last seven games in which they conceded the opening try.
There have been fewer than 53 points scored in six of New Zealand’s last eight tests away from home.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Scottish winger Darcy Graham was on song with a hat trick of tries against the USA last week, continuing to show his appetite when playing at home, having now racked up 16 tries in his last 11 internationals at Murrayfield. That all started with a try in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in 2022. All Blacks captain Ardie Savea could be an outside chance to find the line as one of four All Blacks to score a try in at least three internationals this year.
Scotland will be without usual starting centre Huw Jones until the new year, while prop Zander Fagerson has not won his race to be fit after being sidelined by injury since early April. For New Zealand, two of their three changes to their starting XV were injury-related, losing brothers Scott Barrett and Jordie Barrett to injury last week.
Betting Analysis
It’ll be an emotional day at Murrayfield but little can surprise this experienced New Zealand outfit, who should eventually wear down the Scots before New Zealand win by a double-digit margin.
Author: Peter Stavrinou