Match News and Current Form
Samoa rugby is enduring a wretched period on and off the field having pulled out of their 2024 northern hemisphere tour due to near-bankruptcy, whilst they have had to relocate this ‘home’ game to Auckland’s Eden Park after the western grandstands of Apia Park in Samoa were condemned for urgent demolition earlier this year.
In a city with an estimated 135,000 Samoan expats, they’re still expected to have the crowd on their side, but have the significant disadvantage of not yet having played a competitive match this year. They had a reasonably successful 2024, losing heavily to Japan (49-27) and Fiji (42-16) but defeating Tonga (43-17), USA (18-13), Spain (34-30) and even Tier 1 Italy (33-25), which sees them wedged between Wales and Japan in the World Rugby rankings (13th).
Scotland coach Gregor Townsend is expecting the atmosphere to be just as fiercely against them and has been preparing for a physical encounter with little intel outside of Samoa’s 2024 matches and those Samoan internationals who played for Moana Pasifika in the 2025 Super Rugby season. Last week they were unable to replicate the shock win over the Maori All Blacks in Whangārei during the opening match of their tour, falling well short of the forecasted +5.5 point handicap despite coming out of the gates quickly to secure an early 7-0 lead.
They dropped down to eighth in the World Rugby rankings as a result of that defeat and Australia’s win over Fiji, which was described by Townsend as “certainly a setback” in terms of their ambition to be in the top-six by year’s end and earn an all-important seeding for the 2027 Rugby World Cup. Victory this week is expected and could be one of if not their most important meeting with Samoa.
Head-to-Head History
Scotland hold a 10-2 record over Samoa with the most recent meeting being at the 2019 World Cup (Scotland 34-0). Perhaps one omen for Manu Samoa is that their last victory over Scotland came during the previous Lions tour of Australia, when the two sides met in Durban!
Hot Stats and Streaks
• The first try scorers won 11 of Samoa’s last 13 matches.
• The first half was the highest scoring half in ten of Samoa’s last 13 games as well as six of Scotland’s last seven.
• Scotland covered the main spread in just two of their seven games this year.
• Five of those seven matches finished under the main total points handicap.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Tuna Tuitama scored in back-to-back internationals against Tonga and Japan last year and was also across the line in his penultimate appearance for Moana Pasifika earlier this year. Scottish fullback Kyle Rowe is no longer a rookie at this level and has picked up three tries across his last three games for either Scotland or Glasgow.
Scotland have made five changes to their lineup with Tom Jordan and Jamie Ritchie injured, whilst Darcy Graham called up to the Lions squad. Rory Sutherland and Ewan Ashman are also Australia-bound but are getting starts in this game to keep fit.
Betting Analysis
There are so many unknowns with Samoa playing their first game in almost one year, so we could instead follow a long trend and back the first half to be the highest scoring half.