Match News and Current Form
Back in 2023, the thought of a Lions visit in two years would have induced nausea in some Wallabies supporters still reeling from their worst ever World Cup and Rugby Championship campaigns and subsequent all-time low ranking of tenth. Following the bitter dismissal of former hero Eddit Jones, green shoots have emerged both on and off the pitch. The finances of a close to bankrupt Rugby Australia are heading back in the right direction thanks to this tour and the 2027 World Cup, whilst there have been promising performances at franchise and international level.
Australia defeated England at Twickenham for the first time since 2015, came agonisingly close to ending an 11-year drought in Dublin, and the ACT Brumbies put pay to their own 12-year hoodoo in Auckland by conquering the Blues. There’s a good reason the odds are stacked against them, but Joe Schmidt’s investment in confident players is on the way to paying off.
There’s no absence of optimism in the British & Irish Lions camp, illustrated by Henry Pollock’s recent claim that a 3-0 clean sweep is “definitely on the table”. The demons of the horror show against Argentina in Dublin - their first loss in a tour opener since 1971 - were exorcised from the moment they overran a briefly stubborn Western Force in Perth one week later.
It hasn’t been a flawless tour so far by any means - head coach Andy Farrell urged the players “to improve in all areas” after they were held to modest margins by both the Brumbies (W 36-24) and Waratahs (W 21-10) - but word is that the squad was buoyed by the midweek news of injuries to some of the most powerful and impactful Wallabies forwards of current time.
Head-to-Head History
The previous tour of Australia in 2013 was a particularly thrilling one as far as the Test matches were concerned. The Lions won the opening match 23-21, lost the second by an even narrower margin (16-15) before getting their things together to claim the series decider 41-16. Of the two tours to take place this century, the matches were shared 3-3.
Hot Stats and Streaks
• Australia lost 13 of their last 14 games (since the start of 2023) as a betting outsider.
• The average score across Australia’s seven defeats in 2024 was 35-17.
• All six of the Lions’ games in 2025 finished under the main total points handicap.
• Only in one of those matches (Brumbies) did the Lions concede most of their points in the second half.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Wallabies fullback Tom Wright found the line in three internationals last year as well as in late season Super Rugby games against the Reds (R14) and Hurricanes (finals), so he should be hungry for a try. Tommy Freeman made the Six Nations Team of the Tournament having scored in all five rounds, before he followed that up with five straight tryscoring appearances for Northampton!
Rob Valetini is the biggest absence of a Wallabies side also missing Will Skelton, Langi Gleeson and Dave Porecki. Schmidt has handed caps out to both Tom Lynagh (son of former Wallaby Michael) and Nick Champion de Crespigny in response. The Lions are without Blair Kinghorn and Mack Hansen for this match.
Betting Analysis
The Lions have struggled at the breakdown on this tour and are likely to face a dogged forward pack. Australia have won ten of their last 12 games in Brisbane including against New Zealand and South Africa, and whilst that’s unlikely here, Australia should cover a +10.5 point handicap.