Match News and Current Form
A pulsating opening 20 minutes in the pouring Auckland rain last week saw the All Blacks run in two unanswered tries against their South African rivals, which ultimately set up what was a monumental win. Another victory here would see the winners of 20 of the 29 editions of the Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship lay one hand on the trophy with two games against Australia remaining, and having won 13 of their last 14 matches on home soil (L1), it’s understandable why they’re the bookies’ favourite to go back-to-back against the reigning world champions here.
In terms of personnel, there’s five changes to the starting XV from last week, starting in the front-row where Codie Taylor and Fletcher Newell make way for Samisoni Taukei’aho and Tyrel Lomax, with the rest of the pack remaining unchanged. In the backs, Noah Hotham returns at scrumhalf instead of Finlay Christie, while both wings Emoni Narawa and Rieko Ioane drop out for the debuting Leroy Carter and Damian McKenzie, with McKenzie taking over at fullback and Will Jordan moving to wing.
The Springboks' hopes of retaining the Rugby Championship for the first time in their history are very much on the ropes after last week’s defeat, but usually their winning mentality takes over immediately since they last suffered consecutive defeats at the backend of 2022. South Africa are at risk of losing their aura of being world dominators should another defeat follow here, but perhaps the results aren’t reflecting the performances, as improving on their measly 1.8 points per opposition 22m entry, the lowest in the competition, could be the difference between winning and losing.
To aid his team in being more clinical, coach Rassie Erasmus has rung the changes again, by dropping Eben Etzebeth and including Ruan Nortje at lock, while eighth man Cobus Wiese comes straight into the lineup after his suspension to round out the changes in the forwards. Only speedsters Cheslin Kolbe and Canan Moodie retain their places in the backline, meaning Cobus Reinach, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Ethan Hooker (making his first Test start), Damian Willemse, and Aphelele Fassi all come in. There’s also a return to captaincy for Siya Kolisi.
Head-to-Head History
Last week’s win for New Zealand snapped a four-game losing streak against South Africa, and now they take aim at beating the Springboks twice at a single edition of the tournament for the first time since 2017.
Hot Stats and Streaks
A backline player has scored the first try in all of New Zealand’s last five matches.
New Zealand have lost their last four Test matches in Wellington when conceding 20 or more points.
South Africa has scored 20 or more points in 13 of their last 14 Test matches away from home.
South Africa have won 14 of their last 17 Test matches on foreign soil (L2), conceding less than 30 points on each occasion.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Will Jordan has scored a mind boggling 20 tries in his last 21 Tests, including one last week, meaning he has scored in each of his three Rugby Championship home matches against South Africa. His opposite number Cheslin Kolbe will have a huge part to play for the visitors, since he’s dotted down in two of his last four Rugby Championship visits to New Zealand, including the historic 36-34 win for South Africa at this stadium in 2018.
Codie Taylor and Emoni Narawa are both injury withdrawals from last week’s team, while all of South Africa’s changes seem to be tactical.
Betting Analysis
South Africa won’t be expected to start as slowly as they did last week, especially with their tournament on the line, hence taking the Springboks to score more than 10.5 first-half points could be the right bet here.