Not for the first time this decade, New Zealand rugby finds itself in a vulnerable position, and a resurgent Australia are fancying their chances of finally burying the Eden Park curse.
Match News and Current Form
The All Blacks are walking wounded after suffering their heaviest defeat of their entire history last round against the Springboks, though with the score being 17-10 to the Springboks at the one-hour mark, it was really just a complete collapse in a 20-minute period that was responsible for the horror that ensued. Head coach Scott Robertson acknowledged as much, saying that ‘for the majority (of the game) we played some good footy’, and he has opted not to swing the axe like many coaches would in the face of a record-breaking humiliation. In fact, he has been able to recall Cam Roigard, Cortez Ratima, Codie Taylor and Caleb Clarke to send a very strong squad out this weekend.
Whilst their rivalry with the Springboks hasn’t been panning out the way they’d have hoped, they still hold a 16-3 record against all other opponents since the end of the last World Cup including a clean sweep of the 2024 Bledisloe Cup. There could be no better city to continue their domination of Australia than Auckland, where they remain unbeaten in 60 matches (W58, D2) spanning back 31 years including North Harbour Stadium.
After coming agonisingly close to an historic series win against the British & Irish Lions, Australia continues to grow under Joe Schmidt and this is perhaps their best chance in years, albeit still an unlikely one, to end a winless run at Eden Park that goes right back to 1987. They’ll need to step things up in the set piece department and win the gainline if they are to do so but Schmidt often has a thing or two up his sleeve, whilst this year the Wallabies have found themselves able to improve off the back of defeats without being able to establish a winning consistency.
Covering the pre-match line in five out of seven games since a tight season-opening win over Fiji in Newcastle underlines how they have managed to overachieve throughout the year even without always winning. They’ve long struggled overseas in this competition, losing six of their last eight Rugby Championship games away from home. There will be a couple of milestones to further motivate the squad such as Tate McDermott’s 50th match and a record-breaking 150th for James Slipper, who will become the first Wallaby to do so.
Head-to-Head History
The All Blacks are on a nine-game winning streak against the Wallabies but it hasn’t been smooth sailing in recent years, with two of the last three meetings producing three-point margins. But on home soil, they’re unbeaten in 30 games against Australia with ten of the last 14 such games producing 20+ point margins.
Hot Stats and Streaks
New Zealand won all three games this year in which they conceded the first try.
New Zealand were in front at half-time in 17 of their last 19 games (W13, L6).
62% of all tries scored by Australia this year were scored in the second half.
Australia’s last five defeats were all by a single-digit margin.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Caleb Clarke and Will Jordan were the two All Blacks to score tries in both Bledisloe Cup games last year and the latter has found the line in four internationals this year. Wallabies winger Joseph Suaalii continues to blossom throughout this tournament and has dotted down in three of his last four games.
Captain Scott Barrett is New Zealand’s only major injury for this round, whilst Australia are without fullback Andrew Kellaway and back-rower Rob Valetini.
Betting Analysis
New Zealand are understandably warm favourites but Australia have been playing their best rugby with their backs against the wall and have done enough to suggest they can cover the +14.5 handicap.