Match News and Current Form
Italy avoided the wooden spoon in each of the last two SNCs, which could upon reflection say more about the state of Welsh rugby than it does about the Italian game, but Italy came agonisingly close to beating Ireland on home soil in 2025 (L 22-17) and pushed Scotland much further than the 31-19 loss in Edinburgh would have suggested. To fulfil their ambitions of finishing fourth or better for the first time in their 26-year history, Italy will almost certainly need to take the points here. Covering the spread in four of their five games at home across the two previous seasons suggests they can give this a big shakeup.
Returning captain Michele Lamaro and his teammates Paolo Garbisi and Juan Ignacio Brex will earn their 50th Test caps to add to this momentous occasion, but there is otherwise going to be an undermanned Italian squad trying to replicate the historic home win of 2024, with the inspirational Ange Capuozzo and talented Tommaso Allan headlining a long list of unavailable players.
Scotland are expected to come away with victory here, having been handed a handicap of -8.5 points by the bookies, and will need to do so to have any chance of improving upon last season’s fourth-place finish (W2, L3) in which they defeated Italy and Wales at home but were challenged in both encounters. The Scots are generally reliable when it comes to punching down, winning 19 of 20 Tests as betting favourites since the start of 2023, and will be driven further by the haunting memories of the single anomaly - when they visited Italy in 2024 and lost narrowly.
The culling of two rest weekends down to one, forcing the tournament to be condensed from seven weeks to six, will present team management of all six nations with significant challenges as they look to manage workloads differently. Perhaps that’s why head coach Gregor Townsend has left out some big names this weekend such as top all-time try scorers Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham as well as fullback Blair Kinghorn, choosing Tom Jordan to be flanked by Glasgow pair Kyle Steyn and Jamie Dobie.
Head-to-Head History
Scotland were victorious in 14 of the last 15 H2Hs, but the only exception came when these sides last met in Italy. The Azzurri won 31-29.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The first half was the highest scoring half in seven of Italy’s 11 games last year.
Ten of Italy’s last 13 games finished under the main total points handicap.
The first half was also the highest scoring half in eight of Scotland’s last 12 Tests.
Scotland covered the spread in only one of their five SNC 2025 matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Italy starting centres Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello both dotted down in two separate SNC games last year, the former doing so against Scotland. Scottish scrumhalf Ben White got his 2025 SNC off to a sensational start by scoring tries in each of their first three games.
Tommaso Allan, Ange Capuozzo, Gianmarco Lucchesi, Sebastian Negri, Martin Page-Relo, Jacopo Trulla, Stephen Varney and Ross Vintcent are amongst those absent for Italy. Scotland’s high-profile absences are all tactical decisions.
Betting Analysis
The trends of both teams last year point towards the first half being the highest scoring half.