Six Nations: Predictions, best bets and odds (Week 1)

Six Nations: Predictions, best bets and odds (Week 1)
Six Nations: Predictions, best bets and odds (Week 1)Flashscore / AFP

The 2026 Six Nations Championship (SNC) will be the first in history to kick off on a Thursday night, so bettors will need to make their Six Nations investments a little earlier than normal. Our expert correspondent Aaron Murphy has crunched the numbers and brings you a recommendation for each match to start the year off right.

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2025 was a record-breaking Six Nations Championship as the first to clear more than 100 tries across the five rounds, 30% of them coming from eventual champions France who set a new team record for most tries in a single campaign.

This year's edition will bring with it the unique challenge of two rest weekends being cut down to one, which is most likely to favour the teams with the greatest depth such as tournament favourites France, who sent a second-string squad to New Zealand in July last year and were still competitive despite the final results. 

France v Ireland, Thursday, 8:10pm GMT

France v Ireland
France v IrelandFlashscore

The winners of the last four SNCs meet in Paris on Thursday night in a battle of fifth v fourth. France are incredibly short favourites to win the title this year, having last gone back to back in 2006-07, on the basis of having won last year despite playing three away games.

Now with the additional advantage of three home matches this year and return of inspirational captain Antoine Dupont, an in-form fly half in Matthieu Jalibert and a deadly back three that includes rising star Louis Bielle-Biarrey and 2025 leading scorer Thomas Ramos, France are expected to be ruthless and unstoppable in attack. 

France alone piled on an average of 43.6 points per game alone last year, including 42 against the Irish in Dublin, so we can't rule out a similar performance here with the Irish looking a little undermanned due to injuries.

Five of the last six games between these sides produced at least 50 points, so an over/under handicap of only 50.5 points seems very low. 

Tip: Over 50.5 total points - 1.90 @ Bet365

Bet explanation: France and Ireland need to score at least 51 points combined for this bet to win.

Italy v Scotland, Saturday, 2:10pm GMT

Italy v Scotland
Italy v ScotlandFlashscore

Rarely does a Six Nations go by without one of these two teams overachieving, but these two teams would have been bitterly disappointed with their output in 2025, so this fixture could set the tone for the rest of their campaigns.

Italy avoided the wooden spoon for a second consecutive year with a win over Wales but were duly embarrassed by both France and England, whilst conceding three tries within the first half-hour of their Round 1 game against Scotland in Edinburgh ensured they got off on the wrong foot. 

Scotland were victorious in 14 of the last 16 head-to-heads, but one of the two exceptions came just two years ago when Italy were victorious 31-29, and since then the Azzurri have defeated Wales, Georgia and Australia on home soil. Several of their players are battle hardened from last year's Lions tour and so they're expected to avenge that defeat here.

One pattern that emerged throughout the 2025 SNC for both teams is that eight of the nine games involving either of both teams saw the bulk of the points scored before half-time, and that continued into the autumn with the first half being the highest scoring half in seven of Italy's 11 Tests and seven of Scotland's 11.

Tip: First half to be the highest scoring half - 1.83 @ Bet365

Bet explanation: This bet will win if the majority of points are scored before half-time. A tied count will not suffice. 

England v Wales, Saturday, 4:40pm GMT

England v Wales
England v WalesFlashscore

A rivalry approaching almost 150 years continues at Twickenham on Saturday afternoon with England expected to get their campaign off to an immensely easy start, with bookmakers giving them a -29.5 point handicap in the two-way market. 

England are in rollicking form since losing last year's Six Nations by points differential, falling only six points short of what would have eventually been a Grand Slam when they lost their opening game 27-22 in Dublin. Since then England have constructed an 11-game winning streak, averaging 36 points per game in the SNC and 33 overall across their 12 matches in 2025. 

Wales are on an 11-game losing streak in this competition, having finished winless and last in each of the previous two editions, and will be hoping a new head coach can quickly steer them back in the right direction for the 2027 World Cup. They scored only three first-half tries throughout the entire of the 2025 SNC, registering a first-half try differential of -12 (compared with -3 in the second half), so we're expecting them to struggle to score early.

That makes the first half handicap market worth a play, with England needing to outscore Wales by only two converted tries to get this one over the line.  

Tip: England first half -13.5 points - 1.80 @ Bet365

Bet explanation: England need to be leading by at least 14 points at half-time. 

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