Who could the home nations face in the knockouts of Rugby World Cup 2027?

England will face Wales in Pool F at the next Rugby World Cup
England will face Wales in Pool F at the next Rugby World CupDavid Rogers / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / Getty Images via AFP

We take a look at the potential route to the semi-finals of Rugby World Cup 2027 for England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

The four teams fit neatly into two pools, but which of their Six Nations rivals or southern hemisphere giants could they meet in the first two rounds of the knockouts?

Pools

Pool A: Australia (hosts), Hong Kong China, Chile, New Zealand

Pool B: Romania, Georgia, Italy, South Africa

Pool C: Canada, Spain, Fiji, Argentina

Pool D: Portugal, Uruguay, Scotland, Ireland

Pool E: Samoa, USA, Japan, France

Pool F: Zimbabwe, Tonga, Wales, England

England and Wales (Pool F)

Other pool opponents: Tonga and Zimbabwe

While there are no guarantees, for the sake of argument let's say that England and Wales both beat Tonga and Zimbabwe. If that is the case, the winner of the game between the old rivals will top Pool F and play the runner-up of Pool B (South Africa, Italy, Georgia and Romania) in the Round of 16. That is likely to be Italy, but could well be Georgia.

Win that game, and in the quarter-final they will play the winner of the Round of 16 game between the runner-up of Pool A (New Zealand, Australia, Chile and Hong Kong China) and the runner-up of Pool E (France, Japan, USA, Samoa). Unless the Wallabies beat the All Blacks in their pool match, that is likely to be a game between Australia and either Japan or Samoa.

Conversely, in the first round of the knockouts, the runner-up of Pool F will play the runner-up of Pool C, which is out of Argentina, Fiji, Spain and Canada - likely to be Fiji. Then in the quarter-finals they would play the winner of the game between the top seeds in Pool E (France, Japan, USA, Samoa) and the runner up of Pool D (Ireland, Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal).

Winner of Pool F likely route to the semi-finals: R16: Italy, QF: Australia/Japan/Samoa.

Runner-up of Pool F likely route to the semi-finals: R16: Fiji, QF: France/Scotland.

Ireland and Scotland (Pool D)

Other pool opponents: Uruguay and Portugal

Once again, there are no givens in a tournament, but we'll imagine that the winner of Ireland's game against Scotland will top the group and the loser will be runner-up. The Pool D winners will play one of the teams that finishes third in Pools B, E or F. That is likely to be a shootout between Georgia, Samoa, Japan, and Tonga.

Win that game, and in the quarter-finals they will face the winner of the Round of 16 game between the winner of Pool C (Argentina, Fiji, Spain and Canada) and the best third-place team in Pools A, E and F. That is likely to be either Chile, Japan, Samoa or Tonga.

For the runner-up, the Round of 16 game will be against the winner of Pool E (France, Japan, USA, Samoa), and if they win that, then in the quarter-final they will take on the winner of the Round of 16 game between the runner up of Pool C (Argentina, Fiji, Spain and Canada) and the runner-up of Pool F (England, Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe)

Winner of Pool D likely route to the semi-finals: R16: Samoa/Georgia/Japan/Tonga, QF: Argentina.

Runner-up of Pool F likely route to the semi-finals: R16: France, QF: Wales/Fiji.

Who are the big winners of the draw?

You'd have to say all the home nations will be pleased with the draw, and Ireland and Scotland probably have the most to smile about. Top their pool, and the highest-ranked team they would face in the quarter-finals - based on the current standings - is Argentina. Certainly not an easy prospect, but much better than what is happening at the top half of that side of the draw.

Should the All Blacks and Springboks top their respective pools, they will be on a collision course in the quarter-finals. And whichever team wins that game would likely play France in the semi-finals.

For England and Wales, topping their pool likely would mean playing Italy and then Australia to make it into the semi-finals. Even in the semi-finals they're probably looking at Ireland or Argentina, which based on current performances they would take.

As was the case at Rugby World Cup 2023, the top seeds have all been drawn on the same side of the bracket, leaving England, Ireland, Australia and Argentina (probably) fighting it out for semi-final places.

The big guns of New Zealand, France and the current holders South Africa, along with Scotland, will all likely be knocking each other out on the road to the final.

Of course this would all be thrown out the window if the Wallabies beat the All Blacks in the group stage, as that would mean a likely quarter-final between New Zealand and England, or if Wales beat England which would send England onto a likely quarter-final against France.

There are still 22 months of rugby to be played before we get to that opening game, but already there is plenty of buzz around the knockout stages of the next World Cup.

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