Arsenal will fancy their chances at home to Leverkusen but must be wary of Grimaldo threat

Arsenal's Viktor Gyokeres battles with Leverkusen's Alejandro Grimaldo
Arsenal's Viktor Gyokeres battles with Leverkusen's Alejandro GrimaldoMoritz Müller / Alamy / Profimedia

Bayer Leverkusen travel to North London on Tuesday evening, looking to spring a major surprise in this season's Champions League Round of 16.

Up until the first leg of this tie, Arsenal had been perfect in the 2025/26 edition of the competition, but were it not for a successful Kai Havertz penalty in the last minute against his old club - one of only two shots on target for the visitors in the whole game - the Gunners would be staring a deficit in the face before kick-off at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal are dominant at home

As it is, the tie remains all square, and the Bundesliga outfit is likely to have their work cut out if they want to knock out one of the favourites for the tournament.

That's because Mikel Arteta's side has scored in all nine of their UCL games in 25/26, and at home they've won every game, scoring 12 goals in those four matches and conceding just three.

Arsenal's current form
Arsenal's current formFlashscore

Furthermore, they're on a six-match winning run in all competitions at the Emirates, though the North Londoners will have to guard against complacency, given that Leverkusen have lost just once away in Europe this season, drawing one and winning the other three.

The Bundesliga outfit were the first in six UCL games not to concede three goals against the Gunners, so, just as in the first 90+ minutes, Leverkusen aren't likely to be any pushovers.

Good omens for Gunners supporters

Home supporters looking for an omen will point to the only previous two-legged tie between the sides back in 2002, when a 1-1 draw at the BayArena was followed by a 4-1 Arsenal win in North London.

It's worth pointing out too that, although that result meant Leverkusen avoided defeat in the first leg of a Champions League last 16 match for just the second time (W1 D1 L5), they’ve never previously gone on to progress from the previous six occasions they’ve played in this round.

They are, however, unbeaten in three consecutive knockout round matches (W1 D2) for the first time since April 2002 (W1 D2).

The Gunners will need to limit Alejandro Grimaldo's influence if they want to try and replicate such a result, however.

The former Barcelona left-back has not only created the most chances for Leverkusen in this season's competition (26), but he's also had the most shots at goal (20), provided the most assists (three), and jointly top-scored with Patrik Schick (four goals).

Grimaldo the danger man for Leverkusen

It was he who whipped in an assist for Robert Andrich to equalise in the first leg, that being the first time Arsenal had conceded a goal from a corner in the Champions League since November 2024 against Sporting.

Another Spaniard, Aleix Garcia, has been another shining light for the German side, and his total of 874 passes in the UCL is more than double Martin Zubimendi's 417, the most attempted by any Arsenal player in this edition of the tournament.

With 5,894 total passes collectively, too, Leverkusen have made the second most this season, putting the Gunners' 4,097 (the 23rd best return of all teams in the UCL) well in the shade.

Although Bukayo Saka and Viktor Gyokeres have an equal amount of total shots (20) and shots on target (10), the most in the squad in each case, it's actually Gabriel Martinelli who leads the European scoring charts for Tuesday's hosts with six goals.

First goal is vital

It isn't clear at this stage whether Arteta will play the winger from the start, or look to bring him on as an impact sub when Arsenal's opponents are tiring.

Mikel Merino remains out of action for this game, though both Martin Odegaard and Jurrien Timber are rated at 50/50, so a late fitness test in both cases will determine their participation. Arthur, Loic Bade and Lucas Vazquez are out for the visitors.

Arsenal v Bayer Leverkusen - Live win probability
Arsenal v Bayer Leverkusen - Live win probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

Although the North Londoners tend to score the vast majority of their UCL goals in the last half hour of games, they're also fast starters, grabbing four in the opening 15 minutes of matches.

Leverkusen have let in the joint most (three) during all of those points in the game, but are generally at their best directly after half-time.

Neither team has lost when scoring the first goal in the competition this season, though Kasper Hjulmand's side hasn't won when conceding first, bringing into the sharpest focus how important it is to get on the scoreboard quickly.

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Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore

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