Were the hosts to triumph, they would move to within three points of the Gunners with a game in hand, but if the visitors headed back to North London with all three points, they'd be nine ahead (six even if City won the game in hand) with only five games to play.
Insane tempo
Mathematically, it would still be possible for Arsenal to be caught, but the likelihood would be minuscule.
The Gunners had got the better of their opponents in recent league games, being unbeaten in five, though they were comprehensively undone by Pep Guardiola's side in the recent Carabao Cup final.
An insane tempo to the start of the game saw chances for both sides in the opening five minutes, City going closest when Rayan Cherki's shot was deflected onto the post.
Once Arsenal had settled, however, they had the hosts on the back foot.
Cherki's exceptional quality
Cristhian Mosquera's winning of two of his three tackles in the opening quarter hour was a major reason why City couldn't get up the pitch, with Martin Odegaard and Declan Rice's 14 and 12 touches respectively, bypassing the likes of Rodri and stopping City's attacks at source.
It took a moment of real quality to open up the visiting defence, however, as Rayan Cherki tip-toed around Gabriel and escaped the attentions of Rice and Piero Hincapie before firing home the opener with City's first shot on target.
Given that the hosts had avoided defeat in their last 23 matches when scoring first in the league - since a 1-2 loss to Brighton in August 2025 - it needed a response from the Gunners.
Incredibly, within 100 seconds, Gianluigi Donnarumma was caught in possession by Kai Havertz, and the German equalised for his first Premier League goal since February 2025 (also against Man City).
Bernardo Silva had been quietly efficient with a 100% pass completion, whilst Rodri was winning every duel both aerially and on the ground, as City attempted to smother Arsenal's momentum.
However, Erling Haaland, the Premier League's leading scorer with 22 goals, had been virtually anonymous in the first half hour, and his wild swing at an effort was symptomatic of his performance. Just his seventh touch of the game, no other player had less by that point.
City start to dictate
City had begun to dictate proceedings with a collective 66% possession, and with the majority of their players posting pass completion rates of above 90%, Arsenal were finding it difficult to get a foothold.
Indeed, the Gunners had lapsed into retreating towards their own box and playing a little more defensively, something that they'd been accused of in games of late.
That allowed Jeremy Doku to work his magic down the left channel, and a sensational 13 one-on-ones attempted before half-time, seven of which were won, were at least five more than any other player from either side.
Arsenal still had their moments, but Havertz couldn't connect from six yards out with only Donnarumma to beat.
Level at the break
Guardiola is likely to have been disappointed by his side's failure in front of goal, scoring just the once despite having eight shots by the break, but only two on target.
Two-thirds of possession and 15 touches in Arsenal's box were also standout numbers, though the Gunners were still level when Anthony Taylor blew his whistle for half-time.
Haaland was next to hit the woodwork, and Doku could only find David Raya's gloves as City looked to turn the screw at the start of the second half.
Arsenal were stuck in their own half and had to resort to playing the long ball, as the hosts swarmed all over them.
Haaland takes advantage of Arsenal's lack of awareness
In the opening 10 minutes after the break, the difference between the two sides was stark, City having seven touches in the Arsenal box and three attempts, with the Gunners not registering in either metric.
Gabriel and William Saliba were holding firm, however, winning 100% of their tackles before the hour.
A superb break from the North Londoners then carved open the City defence, but despite having a four-on-two situation, Donnarumma managed to redeem himself with a point-blank save from Arsenal's first shot on target since their goal.
Eberechi Eze then smashed an effort against the inside of the post, before the Gunners totally switched off from Donnarumma's long throw out that started a move which ended with Haaland finding the back of the net.
No goals, no shots and no touches for Gyokeres
The Norwegian's fifth shot of the game - it was the first time he'd attempted as many since facing Brighton in January - lit the blue touch paper again in a game that you couldn't take your eyes off.
From a set-piece, Gabriel's header deflected onto the post, but that was about as good as it got for the Gunners, with the Brazilian lucky to stay on the pitch after leaning his head into Haaland.
Hero of the Carabao Cup final, Nico O'Reilly, came to the fore in the latter stages, stifling any sort of creativity from the visitors.
As the minutes ticked by, things began to get more desperate for the North Londoners, though any attempt for Viktor Gyokeres to become the match winner after his 84th-minute introduction fell completely flat after the Swedish international not only had no shots at goal, but didn't even touch the ball in the 13 or so minutes he was on the pitch.
Advantage City?
Havertz's bullet header flashed just over the bar as Arsenal hoped a final flourish might bring them an equaliser that would retain their points advantage in the race for the title.
Though they were still looking to go on the attack as the whistle sounded, the North Londoners couldn't find the breakthrough.
Advantage City?
