Can Arsenal earn a win at Everton to ensure they're Premier League leaders at Xmas?

Everton's Jake O'Brien heads over during the game vs Arsenal
Everton's Jake O'Brien heads over during the game vs ArsenalAndrew Yates / Zuma Press / Profimedia

Were Manchester City to beat West Ham on Saturday afternoon, they would, temporarily at least, top the Premier League table.

That would then put pressure on Arsenal to deliver the goods at Everton on Saturday evening, if they wanted to go to the summit themselves for Christmas.

Being top at Christmas won't guarantee Arsenal success

If the Gunners do manage to do so, it would be the third time in four years that they've been top of the table going into the festive fixtures, having only managed to do so on two previous occasions in the first 30 Premier League seasons.

That's hardly a guideline to success, however, given that when they've been top at Christmas before, Arsenal have either finished third (2007/08) or second (2002/03, 2022/23 and 2023/24).

Everton vs Arsenal (video preview)
Flashscore

Mikel Arteta, who celebrates the sixth anniversary of his appointment on Saturday, will perhaps be encouraged by Arsenal's recent head-to-head record with the Toffees, given that the North Londoners have won three and drawn two of their last five meetings.

Of those five unbeaten, the last two have been draws, and there haven't been three in a row in this fixture since November 2012 and December 2013.

Only one win in seven at Everton for the Gunners

David Moyes might well point to the fact that prior to that run of results, Everton had won four of the previous five against the North Londoners.

Not to mention that the visitors have only won once in seven away games against Everton since Arsene Wenger left the club, drawing two and losing four. 

Everton v Arsenal - Recent head-to-head results
Everton v Arsenal - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

Moreover, Arsenal's dismal performance against Wolves, where only two own goals saw the hosts win the game at the Emirates Stadium, could also provide a timely motivational point for the Scot in his pre-match team talk.

However, Moyes will have to hope that his team don't concede first against a team managed by one of his former players.

That's because in eight of the last 10 matches in which they've conceded the first goal, Everton have gone on to lose the game.

Toffees remain work in progress

Though they are very much a work in progress at present, it can't be overlooked that Moyes has guided the Toffees into ninth place on 24 points - just two behind Crystal Palace in fifth and four behind Chelsea in the fourth and final Champions League spot.

Speaking of the premier European tournament, in the five English top-flight games that Everton have played this season against sides who qualified for that competition, they've lost them all.

A slight anomaly which could weigh heavily on Arsenal's minds is that they have conceded the highest percentage of their goals against (40%) in the final 10 minutes of games in the 2025/26 Premier League campaign. 

No other teams have conceded such a high proportion of goals in the same time period.

Not forgetting the fact that they've only conceded 10 in total too, making them the second meanest defence in the top five European leagues this season (Roma's eight conceded places them top of this particular ranking). 

Injuries and AFCON duty to distort starting XIs

In terms of who is likely to start the match for either side, injuries and Africa Cup of Nations duty are going to play a part in Arteta's and Moyes' team selections.

For the visitors, Ben White is out after sustaining a new injury last week, whilst Gabriel Magalhaes and Cristhian Mosquera are still not fit enough to return. The same applies to Kai Havertz.

If there's one aspect of Arsenal's play that appears different to previous seasons, it's that, despite those injuries to key players, they've still managed to dig out positive results.

Whether their assignment at the Hill Dickinson Stadium will prove to be a bridge too far will only be found out later on Saturday evening.

For the hosts, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall picked up a knock against his former employers, Chelsea, and is ruled out for this one.  

The 27-year-old has really hit the ground running on the blue half of Merseyside and has already provided two assists and scored four goals in 25/26.

Seamus Coleman, Merlin Rohl and Jarrad Branthwaite are definitely out of this match, with Jack Grealish - another who has found a seemingly perfect home with the Toffees - only rated as 50% likely to play.

Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye are away on AFCON duty, meaning Everton's starting XI is also likely to look a little more different than usual.

Everton v Arsenal - Live win probability
Everton v Arsenal - Live win probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

Both teams are therefore at less than full strength, and this could be a factor in proceedings.

Ultimately, a loss suits neither side, and even another draw for Arsenal, thereby extending their unbeaten run against Everton, will feel like two points dropped.

Game on!

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore

Follow Everton vs Arsenal live with Flashscore!

Chances are you’re about to lose.

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au