Why Man City shouldn't underestimate Sunderland in an important New Year's Day clash

An action shot from the Man City vs Sunderland game at Etihad Stadium in December 2025
An action shot from the Man City vs Sunderland game at Etihad Stadium in December 2025Roger Evans / Actionplus / Profimedia

New Year's Day sees the remaining fixtures of Premier League Matchday 19 played out, one of which will take place at the Stadium of Light as Sunderland host serial Premier League winners, Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola's side head north knowing that three points would bring them back to within two of leaders Arsenal, whilst a win for the hosts would see them jump up two places and leapfrog Chelsea into fifth spot.

City in top form

History is against the Black Cats, however, with City winning 19 of the previous 26 EPL fixtures between them, and Sunderland not having recorded a victory in the fixture since November 2013.

Less than a month ago, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol and Phil Foden were all on target as Guardiola's swashbucklers eased to a 3-0 home win at the Etihad Stadium, a game in which Sunderland managed only one shot on target, and both teams will surely have those 90 minutes in mind as they step out onto the pitch on Thursday night.

That win was one of six in a row for City, though the Wearsiders' manager, Regis Le Bris, will want his players to be mindful that the loss at City is their only one in the last six matches.

Le Bris has the sixth-best win percentage (41.2%) of any Premier League manager this season, too, but won't want his side to go gung-ho in front of their own supporters because it simply won't serve them well against this opponent.

Sunderland have only lost four games

There will be aspects of the recent win against local rivals Newcastle and the draw against Liverpool at Anfield that the manager can use as a motivational tool, and the fact that Sunderland are unbeaten at home this season, with five wins and four draws.

They've only lost four matches in total in 2025/26 - the same as City - and will have the knowledge that the last time their opponents came to the North East (vs Newcastle in November), they lost.

Sunderland's position in the Premier League table
Sunderland's position in the Premier League tableFlashscore

City's recent record at the Stadium of Light is an interesting one too, given that they won on their last three league visits, but lost the four games previous to that.

Furthermore, the hosts haven't lost a league game at the start of a calendar year since 2018, winning three and drawing four.

City's only new year defeat since 2012 came at Sunderland

The visitors can boast an even better record in that regard, as they've won every opening game in a calendar year for the last 13.

In one of those strange quirks of footballing fate, City have lost only one of their last 19 opening fixtures to a calendar year (winning the other 18), but the defeat came at Sunderland in 2012.

Sunderland v Man City recent head-to-head results
Sunderland v Man City recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

In recent head-to-heads, City have won all seven in the Premier League, and have lost just one of their last 30 English top-flight away games against newly-promoted opposition (W23, D6).

Yet the Black Cats have won more EPL home games against City than they have against any other club in the traditional ‘big six’ (W5, D1, L7).

Can Haaland be stopped?

Goals win games, of course, and City's Erling Haaland looms largest for the hosts. His 19 goals in 18 Premier League games put him way ahead of anyone else in the Premier League scoring charts.

By contrast, Sunderland have only scored 20 in total collectively - only Wolverhampton Wanderers and Nottingham Forest have scored less - with Wilson Isidor's four goals the most that one player has managed for them in 2025/26.

Defensively, the Black Cats have held firm for the most part this season, and their excellent record of conceding just 18 goals in the Premier League in 25/26 is only bettered by City (17) and Arsenal (12).

One thing is almost certain to occur in the game, and that is Sunderland being passed off the park. City are leading the passing charts at present with 10,161 collectively. Their opponents are at the opposite end of the spectrum, with their 6,637 passes being the worst output of all 20 EPL teams this season.

AFCON has decimated Black Cats' squad

City also lead the way with pass accuracy (88%), goals scored (43) and shot conversion rate (23%), and it won't be a surprise to anyone to note that Haaland has had the most shots at goal (68) and the most on target (37).

Jeremy Doku has created the most chances (36), but he misses out through injury along with Mateo KovacicJohn Stones and Oscar Bobb. Omar Marmoush and Rayan Ait-Nouri are on Africa Cup of Nations duty, but luckily for Guardiola, his squad is deep enough to cope.

Sunderland don't have the same luxury, and could really start to feel the absences of Chemsdine Talbi, Noah Sadiki, Arthur Masuaku, Bertrand Traore, Reinildo Mandava and Habib Diarra (AFCON). Dan Ballard is also out with a foot injury.

The hosts will therefore be looking to Granit Xhaka to lead them into battle, as the Swiss aims to improve upon his five assists and 932 passes, both best-in-class for the Black Cats. 

Sunderland v Man City - Live win probability
Sunderland v Man City - Live win probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

Enzo Le Fee's 24 chances created have also been a feature for them this season, and if he too is on song, then Isidor might well get to improve his scoring record, his total shots at goal (31) and shots on target (12).

The first quarter hour is likely to set the tone in this one, with City not conceding in that time frame so far in 25/26 but scoring five, and Sunderland not scoring during the opening 15 minutes but conceding five.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore

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