Sweden, who qualified for the FIFA World Cup just once since 2006, were in dire need of a win in their qualifying campaign after a 2-0 loss away at Kosovo and a 2-2 draw in Slovenia, making the home clash against Switzerland nothing short of a must-win.
In the 44th minute, with the score at 0-0, Spurs midfielder Lucas Bergvall looked to be the beneficiary of an error from Swiss centre-half Manuel Akanji after Alexander Isak made a clever interception and had no one in front of him but goalkeeper Gregor Kobel.
Bergvall ran with Isak and received the ball in front of an open goal, but failed to make proper contact with the ball, instead brushing over it and just accidentally touching it with his back heel.
Too bad to count
The 19-year-old Bergvall, who played just his fifth senior cap for Sweden, missed the ball so badly that sports analytics experts Opta did not even register it as a shot attempt.
"Since Bergvall gets the ball on his heel and does not actually kick it towards the goal, we (Opta) do not count this as a shot (and therefore it has no xG value). Of course, he intends to kick the ball towards the goal, but because he essentially kicks over the ball, we cannot count it as a goal attempt."
An open goal with no defender close to him, and yet, Bergvall could not even register a shot attempt. But how much was his chance worth in Expected Goals (xG)?
Highest xG of his career?
The best (recent) comparison to Bergvall's miss is Ajax striker Wout Weghorst's opening goal against Sparta Rotterdam during round 8 of the Dutch Eredivisie, on Saturday, October 4th.
Weghorst received the ball in front of an open goal, about one metre closer to the goal than Bergvall, and slots it home. His chance was worth a massive 0.884 xG.
It's unlikely Bergvall will get another chance with that xG number in his career. Sweden ended up losing 2-0 to Switzerland, leaving Jon Dahl Tomasson's team eight points astray from the top spot in Group B.
With a World Cup ticket on the line, and now probably out of reach, Bergvall might live to regret this for years to come.