Djokovic out to spoil Italian dream in Australia, Swiatek facing tough test vs Rybakina

Novak Djokovic could spoil the Italian dream
Novak Djokovic could spoil the Italian dreamMARTIN KEEP / AFP

Wednesday at the Australian Open will feature the remaining quarter-final matches, and Italian tennis fans are certainly looking forward to the possible clash between Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti; however, Italy's dream of this matchup could yet be thwarted by Novak Djokovic. On the women's side, Iga Swiatek will face her rival Elena Rybakina and try to avenge a recent, rather unpleasant defeat, while Amanda Anisimova and Jessica Pegula will also battle it out for a spot in the semi-finals.

Featured matches, Wednesday 28th January

Men's singles quarter-finals

Lorenzo Musetti (5) vs Novak Djokovic (4) | Rod Laver Arena, 04:30 CET

Ben Shelton (8) vs Jannik Sinner (2) | Rod Laver Arena, 09:00 CET

Women's singles quarter-finals

Elena Rybakina (5) vs Iga Swiatek (2) | Rod Laver Arena, 01:30 CET

Jessica Pegula (6) vs Amanda Anisimova (4) | Rod Laver Arena, 03:00 CET

Musetti vs Djokovic - 04:30 CET

Match News and Form

When Lorenzo Musetti broke into the top 10 midway through the 2025 season, the task was clear: cut his clay reliance and find consistency on hard courts, and the results have been emphatic. Since the start of last year’s US swing, he has played the best hard-court tennis of his career with sustained top-level results. The reward is a protected top-10 place, a rise into the top five, and a realistic shot at world No. 3 by next Monday.

A couple of results perfectly capture Musetti’s hard-court progress: quarter-final runs at the US Open 2025 and again at the Australian Open this fortnight, a notable shift considering he had never previously reached a hard-court Slam quarter-final. Overall, he has won seven of his first eight matches this season, reaching the final in Hong Kong and the quarter-finals in Melbourne. This run has helped quieten the criticism surrounding his rise into the top five and his push towards the top three despite not winning a title since 2022.

Novak Djokovic has been chasing his 25th Grand Slam title for some time now, and the Australian Open has always stood out as the ideal venue to end that wait, given his pedigree here; he arrives as the most successful player in the tournament’s history with a record 10 titles to his name.

So far, everything has fallen neatly into place, with a comfortable first-week draw seeing him dispatch heavy underdogs without dropping a set. A timely walkover in the second week has further boosted his chances by letting him preserve energy for the bigger tests that lie ahead.

The standards of Djokovic may have dipped without a doubt, but even this version remains out of reach for most of the tour. He has not failed to reach a Grand Slam semi-final since the start of the 2025 season, with all of his three losses in completed matches at that level coming against Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz. In fact, the last time Djokovic failed to reach the semi-final at any tournament was back in April 2025 at the Madrid Masters.

Head to Head

Djokovic leads 9–1. On paper, the 9–1 scoreline looks daunting for Musetti, but the rivalry has been far more competitive than the numbers suggest. Musetti has pushed Novak Djokovic hard in several meetings, forcing deciding sets on four occasions. That includes their most recent clash, a tight three-set battle in the ATP Athens title match just a few weeks ago.

Profile of Lorenzo Musetti.
Profile of Lorenzo Musetti.Flashscore

Stats & Facts

- Musetti has now reached a quarter-final at all four Grand Slams, with this run marking his maiden quarter-final appearance at the Australian Open. His Slam quarter-final record stands at 2–1, with the lone defeat coming against then world No. 1 Sinner at the US Open 2025.

- Musetti has never beaten a top-five opponent at Grand Slams, losing all seven such encounters so far. Notably, this will be his first-ever top-five meeting at the Australian Open.

- Djokovic has not lost to a one-handed backhand player at a Grand Slam since retiring against Stan Wawrinka at the US Open 2019.

- Djokovic’s last quarter-final exit at the Australian Open dates back more than a decade to 2014, when he lost an epic five-set battle to Wawrinka.

Betting Analysis

Musetti’s struggles against elite opponents like Djokovic are not rooted in talent, but in the gaps in mental and physical resilience that have repeatedly surfaced on the biggest stages. Those lessons have been harsh, most notably their first-ever meeting at Roland Garros 2021, where Musetti let a two-set lead slip before fading out. While Djokovic’s advancing age has marginally narrowed that gap, asking Musetti to outmanoeuvre him over five sets in Melbourne remains a huge task, especially with Djokovic coming in well-rested.

In Grand Slams, particularly at the Australian Open, it is almost impossible to doubt Djokovic against anyone not named Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz. The smarter angle lies in backing Djokovic while targeting his total games, as this matchup still points toward a long, competitive four or five-set battle.

Profile of Novak Djokovic.
Profile of Novak Djokovic.Flashscore

Musetti in 2026

Best results: Hong Kong (final)

Best results on outdoor hard courts: Hong Kong (final)

Record: 7-1

Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2

Record on outdoor hard courts: 7-1

Record against top 10: 1-0 (career 15-34)

Record in Grand Slam quarter-finals: 0-0 (career 2-1)

Musetti at the Australian Open

Career record: 7-4

Best result: quarter-finals (2026)

Last year's result: round of 32

Record in quarter-finals: 0-0

Preparation: Hong Kong (final)

Road to the quarter-finals: Collignon (4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 3-2 ret.), Sonego (6-3, 6-3, 6-4), Machac (5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2), Fritz (6-2, 7-5, 6-4)

Djokovic in 2026

Best results: first tournament

Best results on outdoor hard courts: first tournament

Record: 3-0

Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1

Record on outdoor hard courts: 3-0

Record against top 10: 0-0 (career 263-120)

Record in Grand Slam quarter-finals: 0-0 (career 51-10)

Djokovic at the Australian Open

Career record: 102-10

Best result: title (2008, 2011-13, 2015-16, 2019-21, 2023)

Last year's result: semi-finals

Record in quarter-finals: 12-3

Preparation: none

Road to the quarter-finals: Martinez (6-3, 6-2, 6-2), Maestrelli (6-3, 6-2, 6-2), Van de Zandschulp (6-3, 6-4, 7-6), Mensik (w/o)

Shelton vs Sinner - 09:00 CET

Match News and Form

Ben Shelton once again showcased his Grand Slam composure in the round of 16 against former world No. 2 Casper Ruud. Outplayed in the opening set, Shelton showed no signs of panic, raising his level and taking control of the contest. He closed out a confident 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 victory to reach the Australian Open quarter-finals.

The American youngster made his Grand Slam main-draw debut only at the US Open 2022, yet has quickly established himself as a force on the biggest stage. Those Slam performances have been central to his rapid rise up the ATP rankings, carrying him as high as world No. 5. His breakthrough came at the Australian Open 2023, where he reached the quarter-finals before losing to Tommy Paul. In 2025, he made the last four, defeating Lorenzo Sonego in the quarter-finals before his run was halted by Sinner.

Sinner’s physical wobble and near-escape in the third round briefly lifted hopes for other title contenders in Melbourne, but any optimism was short-lived. Making full use of that reprieve, Sinner returned close to his best in the round of 16, overpowering fellow Italian Luciano Darderi in straight sets. A commanding 6-1, 6-3, 7-6 win booked his place in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open.

From Sinner’s perspective, the challenge only grows more physical as he pursues a rare third straight Australian Open title, a feat achieved in the Open Era only by Novak Djokovic. With a history of fitness concerns and recent physical scares, managing his body will be just as critical as his tennis, particularly if he can avoid taxing day sessions. Sinner has lost just three of his last 39 hard-court matches, all of them heavily influenced by fitness issues. Those defeats came against Alcaraz at Cincinnati and the US Open, and Tallon Griekspoor in Shanghai.

Head to Head

Jannik Sinner leads 8–1. Ben Shelton won the pair's first-ever meeting at the Shanghai Masters in 2023, capitalising on Sinner’s accumulated fatigue after his Beijing title the previous week. Since then, Sinner has firmly reasserted control, winning eight straight meetings, including three victories at Grand Slam level.

Profile of Ben Shelton.
Profile of Ben Shelton.Flashscore

Stats & Facts

- Shelton has already played four Grand Slam quarter-finals and converted two of them into semi-final appearances, an impressive strike rate at this level. For comparison, Sinner converted only his fifth Slam quarter-final into his maiden semi-final.

- Shelton remains winless against top-five players in Grand Slams, losing all five such encounters, with four of those defeats coming in straight sets.

- Sinner arrives as a two-time defending Australian Open champion and, since the start of the 2024 season, has lost just one hard-court Slam match, against Alcaraz at the US Open 2025.

- Sinner’s loss to Shelton at the Shanghai Masters 2023 was the last time he was beaten by a left-handed player. In the best-of-five sets format, his most recent defeat to a left-hander came against Rafael Nadal at the French Open 2021.

Betting Analysis

Shelton is now considered a reliable Slam performer, but his name is rarely part of genuine-title-contender conversations because he remains some distance from the elite level set by Sinner and Alcaraz, the players he would almost certainly need to beat to lift a major right now. That said, unlike many of their previous meetings, this matchup does offer Shelton a narrow window of opportunity, which could present an excellent in-play angle if Sinner shows any signs of fatigue or physical cramping. In such a scenario, Shelton, unlike his compatriot Eliot Spizziri, has the tools to pounce on and finish the Italian.

From a pre-match perspective, Sinner -1.5 games in the opening set appeals given his tendency to assert early control, while Shelton +1.5 games in the third set also carries value, with the American likely to become most competitive as the match wears on and physical demands begin to weigh on Sinner.

Profile of Jannik Sinner.
Profile of Jannik Sinner.Flashscore

Shelton in 2026

Best results: Auckland (quarter-finals)

Best results on outdoor hard courts: Auckland (quarter-finals)

Record: 5-1

Record in the last 10 matches: 5-5

Record on outdoor hard courts: 5-1

Record against top 10: 0-0 (career 7-22)

Record in Grand Slam quarter-finals: 0-0 (career 2-2)

Shelton at the Australian Open

Career record: 15-3

Best result: semi-finals (2025)

Last year's result: semi-finals

Record in quarter-finals: 1-1

Preparation: Auckland (quarter-finals)

Road to the quarter-finals: Humbert (6-3, 7-6, 7-6), Sweeny (6-3, 6-2, 6-2), (30) Vacherot (6-4, 6-4, 7-6), Ruud (3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4)

Sinner in 2026

Best results: first tournament

Best results on outdoor hard courts: first tournament

Record: 4-0

Record in the last 10 matches: 10-0

Record on outdoor hard courts: 4-0

Record against top 10: 0-0 (career 59-36)

Record in Grand Slam quarter-finals: 0-0 (career 8-5)

Sinner at the Australian Open

Career record: 26-4

Best result: title (2024-25)

Last year's result: title

Record in quarter-finals: 2-1

Preparation: none

Road to the quarter-finals: Gaston (6-2, 6-1 ret.), Duckworth (6-1, 6-4, 6-2), Spizzirri (4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4), Darderi (6-1, 6-3, 7-6)

Rybakina vs Swiatek - 01:30 CET

Match News and Form

Iga Swiatek enjoyed her most convincing win of the tournament after defeating qualifier Maddison Inglis 6-0, 6-3, in the fourth round. Otherwise, the world No. 2 ended up getting broken multiple times in each of the first three matches, facing a tiebreak against Yue Yuan and dropping a 1-6 set to Anna Kalinskaya.

Last year, Swiatek lost 17 matches across the season, her highest figure of defeats in a calendar year since 2019 (also 17). She will continue to expect stiff resistance in the rest of the tournament, despite having ended her title drought with triumphs at Wimbledon, Cincinnati and Korea Open in the previous season.

Elena Rybakina has been unwaveringly consistent throughout the tournament so far, marching into the quarter-finals without dropping a set or losing more than seven games in any round. After vanquishing Kaja Juvan, Varvara Gracheva and Tereza Valentova, she faced her first seeded opponent in Elise Mertens.

In all, Rybakina has faced 18 breakpoints in this campaign and saved all but four of them, certainly better than what Swiatek has mustered. She has been just as impressive over the last year as the Pole, leading to nine semi-final appearances in all of 2025 and becoming the winner in Strasbourg, Ningbo and WTA Finals.

Head to Head

Iga Swiatek leads 6-5. The Pole won their first four meetings in 2025 - United Cup, Doha, Roland-Garros and Cincinnati - before losing at the WTA Finals in Riyadh in November.

Profile of Elena Rybakina.
Profile of Elena Rybakina.Flashscore

Stats & Facts

- Swiatek holds a 9-4 Grand Slam quarter-final record and 2-0 at the Australian Open, where she finished as a semi-finalist in 2022 and 2025.

- Swiatek has lost three of her last four meetings with top-10 players in majors, but in general owns a 9-5 career-wide record.

- Rybakina is about to play in her first Grand Slam quarter-final since 2024 Wimbledon and overall stands 3-3 in such matches.

- Three years ago, Rybakina made her only previous quarter-final appearance at the Australian Open and went on to become the runner-up to Aryna Sabalenka.

Betting Analysis

Given her struggles at the United Cup and during the early rounds of this tournament, it is clear that Swiatek is not operating at the peak of her powers. Rybakina will also take confidence from their near-even head-to-head record and her recent triumph at the WTA Finals. 

On hard courts, Rybakina remains the more dangerous of the two and looks more than capable of toppling the current version of Swiatek, making her the slight favourite in this top-five clash in Australian Open.

Profile of Iga Swiatek.
Profile of Iga Swiatek.Flashscore

Rybakina in 2026

Best results: Brisbane (quarter-finals)

Best results on outdoor hard courts: Brisbane (quarter-finals)

Record: 6-1

Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1

Record on outdoor hard courts: 6-1

Record against top 10: 0-0 (career 31-27)

Record in Grand Slam quarter-finals: 0-0 (career 3-3)

Rybakina at the Australian Open

Career record: 18-6

Best result: final (2023)

Last year's result: round of 16

Record in quarter-finals: 1-0

Preparation: Brisbane (quarter-finals)

Road to the quarter-finals: Juvan (6-4, 6-3), Gracheva (7-5, 6-2), Valentova (6-2, 6-3), Mertens (6-1, 6-3)

Swiatek in 2026

Best results: first individual tournament

Best results on outdoor hard courts: first individual tournament

Record: 7-2

Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2

Record on outdoor hard courts: 7-2

Record against top 10: 0-1 (career 53-28)

Record in Grand Slam quarter-finals: 0-0 (career 9-4)

Swiatek at the Australian Open

Career record: 26-7

Best result: semi-finals (2022, 2025)

Last year's result: semi-finals

Record in quarter-finals: 2-0

Preparation: United Cup (record 3-2)

Road to the quarter-finals: Yue Yuan (7-6, 6-3), Bouzkova (6-2, 6-3), Kalinskaya (6-1, 1-6, 6-1), Inglis (6-0, 6-3)

Pegula vs Anisimova - 03:00 CET

Match News and Form

Jessica Pegula ended the title defence of compatriot Madison Keys after recording a 6-3, 6-4 victory in the fourth round that took just 78 minutes. She has been similarly impressive in all matches in the campaign so far, also refusing to lose a set to Anastasia Zakharova, McCartney Kessler and Oksana Selekhmeteva.

With at least six quarter-finals on hard courts in each of the last four seasons, Pegula has built a great reputation, mainly at WTA 1000 and majors. It remained true in 2025 when she reached at least the semi-finals at the US Open, Beijing, Wuhan and WTA Finals, or this month when she made the semis in Brisbane.

Amanda Anisimova has been just as impressive this fortnight as her compatriot. The 24-year-old moves into her maiden Australian Open quarter-final after falling at the fourth-round hurdle three times in the past, beating all four foes - Simona Waltert, Katerina Siniakova, Peyton Stearns and Xinyu Wang - in straight sets.

Anisimova has become an entirely different player in the last six months. Since the beginning of the grass-court swing in June 2025, the American has won 33 of 42 matches, leading to runner-up finishes at Wimbledon and the US Open, a trophy at the China Open, and a semi-final finish at the WTA Finals, in that order.

Head to Head

Pegula leads 3-0, but was pushed into deciding sets in their last two encounters: Charleston and Toronto in 2024.

Profile of Jessica Pegula.
Profile of Jessica Pegula.Flashscore

Stats & Facts

- Pegula lost her first six Grand Slam quarter- final matches from the 2021 Australian Open to the 2023 Wimbledon, but has since become a finalist at the US Open in 2024 and a semi-finalist at the same event last year.

- Pegula has won 10 of her last 11 meetings with fellow Americans at majors, including all seven since falling to Madison Keys at the 2023 US Open.

- Anisimova has played four Grand Slam quarterfinals to date and won in three of them.

- Anisimova has lost 10 of 13 career meetings with top-10 players in majors, although two of the victories came in the previous season alone.

Betting Analysis

It would be difficult to confidently pick a clear favourite in any encounter between two in-form top-10 players and particularly so when both have been enormously successful in majors in recent times. Anisimova may have the slightest of advantages, but it won’t take long to disappear.

Profile of Amanda Anisimova.
Profile of Amanda Anisimova.Flashscore

Pegula in 2026

Best results: Brisbane (semi-finals)

Best results on outdoor hard courts: Brisbane (semi-finals)

Record: 7-1

Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2

Record on outdoor hard courts: 7-1

Record against top 10: 1-0 (career 27-37)

Record in Grand Slam quarter-finals: 0-0 (career 2-6)

Pegula at the Australian Open

Career record: 19-6

Best result: quarter-finals (2021-23, 2026)

Last year's result: round of 32

Record in quarter-finals: 0-3

Preparation: Brisbane (semi-finals)

Road to the quarter-finals: Zakharova (6-2, 6-1), Kessler (6-0, 6-2), Selekhmeteva (6-3, 6-2), Keys (6-3, 6-4)

Anisimova in 2026

Best results: Australian Open (quarter-finals)

Best results on outdoor hard courts: Australian Open (quarter-finals)

Record: 5-1

Record in the last 10 matches: 7-3

Record on outdoor hard courts: 5-1

Record against top 10: 0-0 (career 18-28)

Record in Grand Slam quarter-finals: 0-0 (career 3-1)

Anisimova at the Australian Open

Career record: 14-6

Best result: quarter-finals (2026)

Last year's result: round of 64

Record in quarter-finals: 0-0

Preparation: Brisbane (round of 16)

Road to the quarter-finals: Waltert (6-3, 6-2), Siniakova (6-1, 6-4), Stearns (6-1, 6-4), Xinyu Wang (7-6, 6-4)

Wednesday's schedule | Men's singles results | Women's singles results

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