If someone at the beginning of last week had predicted Holger Rune to reach the ATP 500 tournament decider in Barcelona, let alone win it in dominant fashion against the Spanish master of clay, Carlos Alcaraz, you would probably have described them as rather deranged.
Some experts might argue that Rune’s form in 2025 has reached new levels of unpredictability, but that’s not actually true. Apart from reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open and the final of the Indian Wells, Holger’s form has actually been very predictable. Predictably bad.
In Rune’s defence, it should be mentioned that his somewhat disastrous spring season has been haunted by factors that are hard to influence. Illness and bad luck seem to have stalked Rune in 2025 ever since he, short of breath, staggered up to the baseline in his quarter-final in Rotterdam in February, deeply affected by a nasty case of the flu.
'Tsunami of virus'
His mom, Aneke, described his constant bouts of illness as a “tsunami of virus, unforeseen setbacks.” In four torrid months this spring, Rune experienced the biggest health crisis in his career.
Still not fully fit, he put in a lethargic performance against Mariano Navone in Buenos Aires, while he twice had to withdraw with food poisoning in the Mexican Open against Brandon Nakashima and the Monte Carlo Masters against Nuno Borges.
The case of food poisoning in Monte Carlo was quite bewildering, especially as no other players suffered from it, and Rune has his own apartment close to the tennis arena where he could prepare his own food. But this only adds to the chaotic impression you get when you close in on the decisions taken in the Rune camp, and especially his long list of coaches.
No player on the ATP Tour has had so many coaches within a fairly short amount of time since he split the first time from Lars Christensen, who accompanied him at the start of his professional career, in the fall of October 2022.
Since then, he has been coached by Patrick Moratoglou (three times), Boris Becker, Severin Luthi, Kenneth Carlsen, Benjamin Ebrahimzadeh, while Lars Christensen and Kenneth Carlsen are now back, taking turns coaching him at different tournaments to complete a roller coaster ride of odd decision-making from the Rune camp.
Six coaches in three years
This adds to the lack of credibility that always seems to surround Rune. He was labelled a new star in the making when he stunned the tennis world at the age of 19 to become the youngest champion ever at the Paris Masters in October 2022 by beating Novak Djokovic in the final.
But since then, the brash, bad boy who stands out in the gentlemanly atmosphere of tennis has been the main protagonist in some of the tour’s most controversial moments.
Stan Wawrinka in Paris 2022 said that “Rune should stop acting like a baby” but with great expectations comes great responsibility and the questions remains if Rune is ready to wear that 'heavy shirt'.
Rune has made it a habit of saying “that he wants to be No. 1 by the end of the year” at the beginning of each season, but those statements are hard to take seriously, judging from the often very fluctuating level of his performances.
A large number of tennis experts remain conflicted about him, struggling to understand how a player of such talent can sometimes be so underwhelming.
Indeed, many tennis lovers would agree that his career since that famous win against Djokovic in Paris has regressed exponentially, and the 21-year-old Dane is in danger of being left behind as his old rivals from his junior years, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, seem to continue their path to legendary status within the sport.
Signs of promise
Rune himself has far from fulfilled the promise that his Paris triumph predicted, despite making history for his country by reaching the No. 4 spot in the world in 2023. But two and a half years later, Rune is yet to win another Masters title, and still hasn't reached a Grand Slam semi-final.
There have been signs of promise though, when he won five consecutive matches at Indian Wells, the most he’s produced since May 2023, which was enough to fuel fan excitement and revive the debate as to whether Rune is finally ready to fulfill the enormous expectations that will inevitably follow in the wake of a player of his caliber.
That debate will certainly not diminish on the back of his impressive performance in Barcelona. Putting Alcaraz to the sword in the midst of a partisan Spanish crowd signals that Rune, after his disastrous spring, is finally finding form at the right time with the French Open set to start in about a month's time.
Time will tell if Rune has turned a corner and stirred a renaissance that will see him emerge as a real contender for a Grand Slam title, or if Barcelona was just a rare spark in yet another disappointing season. One thing is for sure: There's a champion player in there somewhere.