Sabalenka vs Noskova - 00:00 CET
Match news and form
Aryna Sabalenka continues to be imperious behind her serve and marched into the semi-final of Indian Wells for the third time in her career.
The world No. 1 has done so without losing a set in any of the four rounds, although she faced stiff resistance in beating Victoria Mboko, 7-6(0), 6-4 in the quarter-final.
Earlier in the tournament, the top seed dismissed qualifier Himeno Sakatsume, Jaqueline Cristian, and former champion Naomi Osaka. Overall, Sabalenka has faced 13 break points across the tournament and saved 12, losing only a service game to Cristian in the third round.
Sabalenka has now reached at least the semi-finals in her last six tournaments, a streak which began with a title run at the US Open and more recently included a title in Brisbane and a runner-up finish at the Australian Open. She decided to skip the Middle East swing, but it has had no ill effect on her form.
Linda Noskova struck 13 aces, accounting for nearly half of her 30 winners, as she held off rising star and qualifier Talia Gibson, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 in the quarter-final.
She will be delighted to have reached the semi-final of a tournament where she had never gone past the third round in three previous appearances.
After winning only five matches in the first four tournaments of the season, Noskova is showcasing her best in the desert and dismissed the likes of Sorana Cirstea from a set down and Alexandra Eala in straight sets.
This is the sort of play that helped her rise as high as No. 12 in the rankings in the first week of the season.
Head-to-head
Sabalenka leads 1-0 after winning their 2023 Adelaide championship round match in close straight sets, 6-3, 7-6(4).
Stats & facts
Sabalenka generally has a strong record in semi-finals and stands 18-5 in such matches since the start of 2024.
Sabalenka has been to 13 career WTA 1000 finals, including three in 2025 alone: Indian Wells, Miami, and Madrid.
Noskova has been to six WTA finals owing to her 5-5 record in semi-final matches (plus one walkover win).
Three of Noskova’s six WTA finals came in 2025 alone, including her career’s very first one at the WTA 1000 level in Beijing.
Betting analysis
There is no denying that Noskova is playing the best tennis of her career over the last 12 months and deserves her place in the top 20.
However, Sabalenka is head and shoulders above any other player on tour right now and is the favourite to win the title in any tournament she enters. The Belarusian is expected to continue her run in the desert and pick up another straight-set win.
Sabalenka in 2026
Best results: Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)
Record: 15-1
Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1
Record on outdoor hard courts: 15-1
Record against top 20: 6-1 (career 109-60)
Record in WTA 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 13-6)
Record in semi-finals: 2-0 (career 42-21)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (final)
Sabalenka at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 19-6
Best result: final (2023, 2025)
Last year's result: final
Record in semi-finals: 2-0
Preparation: none
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Sakatsume (6-4, 6-2), Cristian (6-4, 6-1), (16) Osaka (6-2, 6-4), (10) Mboko (7-6, 6-4)
Noskova in 2026
Best results: Indian Wells (semi-finals)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Indian Wells (semi-finals)
Record: 9-4
Record in the last 10 matches: 7-3
Record on outdoor hard courts: 9-4
Record against top 10: 0-1 (career 11-19)
Record in WTA 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 1-0)
Record in semi-finals: 0-0 (career 5-5)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (Round of 32)
Noskova at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 7-3
Best result: semi-finals (2026)
Last year's result: Round of 64
Record in semi-finals: 0-0
Preparation: Doha (Round of 32), Dubai (Round of 32)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Bouzas (6-3, 6-3), Cirstea (6-7, 6-4, 6-4), (31) Eala (6-2, 6-0), Gibson (6-2, 4-6, 6-2)
Rybakina vs Svitolina - Saturday 02:00 CET
Match news and form
Elena Rybakina returns to the semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open after defeating fifth seed Jessica Pegula, 6-1, 7-6(4) - her fourth consecutive victory over the American in just a few months. The world number three was down 1-4 in the second set before forcing the tie-break.
Rybakina has not found this campaign entirely smooth, particularly when she needed the scenic route against world No. 43 Hailey Baptiste in the opening round.
Nevertheless, she has set aside memories of last month’s underwhelming Middle East swing and resumed the run of form that gave her a major title.
Less than two months ago, the Kazakh defeated three top-six players, Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Pegula, en route to her second career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. That triumph, along with late 2025 titles in Ningbo and the WTA Finals, confirmed her resurgence.
Elina Svitolina had lost her last three matches against Swiatek in straight sets when she took on the Pole in the quarter-final this week. However, she took full advantage of her opponent’s more than 40 unforced errors and dealt a stunning 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 upset in over two hours under the sunshine.
This was her first top-two victory since Wimbledon 2023, when she also defeated Swiatek, and her first on hard courts since the 2019 WTA Finals.
The 31-year-old consolidates her place as the season’s match-win leader with 19 victories to just three losses and now sets her eyes on her third final appearance of 2026.
Head-to-head
The series is tied at 3-3. Svitolina won their latest encounter in Madrid last year in straight sets, as well as their one and only meeting on hard courts at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.
Stats & facts
Rybakina converted her only previous semi-final showing in Indian Wells (2023) into a title triumph.
Rybakina has converted only four of her last 12 semi-finals into a final appearance: Strasbourg, Ningbo, WTA Finals, and the Australian Open.
Svitolina is also in her second-ever semi-final appearance in Indian Wells, having lost to eventual champion Bianca Andreescu in 2019.
Svitolina has been to five finals since her maternity comeback in 2023, two in this season alone: Auckland (champion) and Dubai (runner-up).
Betting analysis
Rybakina and Svitolina are both performing at an amazing level, with at least 16 match wins in 2026 already. Their head-to-head record is evenly balanced, and this clash has all the signs of going to a deciding set.
However, Rybakina, who hits the ball considerably harder and has shown greater reliability in late-stage matches, holds the decisive edge to eke through.
Rybakina in 2026
Best results: Australian Open (title)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Australian Open (title)
Record: 16-3
Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2
Record on outdoor hard courts: 16-3
Record against top 10: 4-0 (career 35-27)
Record in WTA 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 5-6)
Record in semi-finals: 1-0 (career 23-15)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (title)
Rybakina at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 15-3
Best result: title (2023)
Last year's result: Round of 16
Record in semi-finals: 1-0
Preparation: Doha (quarter-finals), Dubai (Round of 16)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Baptiste (7-6, 2-6, 6-2), (28) Kostyuk (6-4, 6-4), Kartal (6-4, 4-3 ret.), (5) Pegula (6-1, 7-6)
Svitolina in 2026
Best results: Auckland (title); Dubai (final)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Auckland (title); Dubai (final)
Record: 19-3
Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2
Record on outdoor hard courts: 19-3
Record against top 10: 4-2 (career 47-59)
Record in WTA 1000 semi-finals: 1-0 (career 5-8)
Record in semi-finals: 2-1 (career 24-26)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (semi-finals)
Svitolina at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 21-11
Best result: semi-finals (2019, 2026)
Last year's result: quarter-finals
Record in semi-finals: 0-1
Preparation: Doha (Round of 16); Dubai (final)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Siegemund (7-6, 4-6, 6-3), Krueger (6-4, 6-2), Siniakova (6-1, 1-1 ret.), (2) Swiatek (6-2, 4-6, 6-4)